Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A line of storms that formed along a surface trough just north of
our Alabama and Georgia counties this afternoon should remain
continuous as it moves southeast through the region. The potential
for strong downdrafts will exist within this line as a high
SBCAPE/dTheta-E environment awaits its arrival. Elsewhere only
isolated seabreeze showers and storms have been forming near the
Florida coast. So far, they've remained quite shallow. Outflow
interactions between these storms may generate new, stronger storms
as they interact with the approaching line later this evening. All
convection over land should come to an end by around 03z. Coastal
showers are expected once again tomorrow morning.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf
while a series of +PV anomalies continues to swing through an upper
lever trough in southeastern Canada. With 1000-700mb flow from the
west at less than 10 knots, we would normally see a typical sea-
breeze pattern favoring convection in north Florida that doesn't
move inland much. However, with the influence of the surface trough
to our north associated with the upper level +PV anomaly, we're
expecting another few days of active convection across the area,
with storms moving in from the north across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia in the early afternoon periods. Dew points will
stay in the 70s with models showing PW values of around 1.8-2", so
moisture will be plentiful for these storms as will instability with
model mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km both days and
afternoon SBCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Some of these storms will
be capable of producing downbursts with damaging wind gusts and
possibly some small hail. Temperatures will peak in the mid 90s
Wednesday, low-mid 90s Thursday, dipping to the mid 70s overnight.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Upper level ridging along the southern states will slowly retreat
westward. Meanwhile, the trough in southeastern Canada will lift off
the Atlantic coastline only to be replaced by another trough in
roughly the same spot. This upper level pattern will allow a series
of surface troughs and weak fronts to push across the southeast and
keep us in an active pattern for convection, especially when
combined with our summer sea-breeze pattern. PoPs Friday and
Saturday will be around 40-60%, lowering to a more normal 30-40%
Sunday through Tuesday between when the first upper level trough
lifts off the east coast and the second one replaces it mid-next
week. Temperatures will be near normal- peaking in the low 90s
during the day and cooling to the mid 70s overnight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms
for the duration of the TAF. The best chance for storms will be
at DHN and ABY this afternoon, followed by VLD later this evening.
There remains a low chance for patchy MVFR visibilities tomorrow
morning, too low to mention in the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

A tight surface pressure gradient will allow west-southwest winds
around 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft to prevail through the early
weekend, then high pressure will prevail, allowing lighter winds
and seas to return to the coastal waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected this week with
high relative humidity and scattered to numerous storms each day.

&&

.Hydrology...

An active pattern will remain in place for the area through the
weekend with rainfall totals over the next 5 days of 1.5-2.5".
Since our area rivers are at normal or even low flow levels, this
is not expected to cause any widespread flooding. However,
depending on how storms develop, there may be enhanced chances for
localized flooding, particularly in the Florida Big Bend where
we've already seen several days with higher rainfall totals over
the past week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  96  77  94  77 /  30  40  20  50  20
Panama City   81  91  79  89  80 /  40  30  20  30  30
Dothan        75  96  76  94  76 /  50  50  20  40  30
Albany        76  96  76  93  76 /  30  40  20  50  30
Valdosta      75  97  76  94  76 /  40  50  20  50  30
Cross City    77  93  77  91  77 /  30  40  30  50  30
Apalachicola  80  92  79  91  80 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     TSTM WND GST     OZARK                   31.45N 85.65W
07/21/2015  E55 MPH          DALE               AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 55 MPH WINDS ON HIGHWAY 231 NEAR OZARK WITH
            VERY LOW VISIBILITY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE BRONWOOD           31.84N 84.35W
07/21/2015                   TERRELL            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 118 NORTH OF JAMES WEBB ROAD.

&&

JLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S ROBERTS CROSSROADS    31.60N 85.53W
07/21/2015                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 33 SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 68.

&&

JLF