Alert archive / Georgia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Tallahassee, FL

July 21, 2015Early County, Miller County, Georgia

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 21, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT for Early County, Miller County, Georgia. It was in force for 36 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2015, 4:25 PM EDT (20:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2015, 5:01 PM EDT
In force: 36 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Early County, GA, Miller County, GA

The radar

The Ft Rucker radar (KEOX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 21, 4:34 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 N Blakely, GA	TREE DOWN ON WOODLAWN DR
Jul 21, 4:35 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Nnw Blakely, GA	WIRE DOWN ON CHURCH STREET
Jul 21, 4:35 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 W Centerville, GA	ONE TREE DOWN AT FRYER ROAD AND DAMASCUS HILTON ROAD.
Jul 21, 4:35 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Blakely, GA	WIRE DOWN ON SOUTH MAIN STREET

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 9 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 880 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1105 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

566 
WUUS52 KTAE 212025
SVRTAE
GAC099-201-212115-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0319.150721T2025Z-150721T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
  NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAKELY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
  30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLAKELY...CENTERVILLE...DAMASCUS...SAWHATCHEE...OLD DAMASCUS...
  CUBA...HENTOWN...ROCK HILL...EARLY CO A/P...JONES CROSSROADS...
  HILTON AND HOWARDS MILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3130 8464 3129 8464 3114 8502 3134 8509
      3137 8509 3137 8500 3146 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 320DEG 25KT 3145 8498 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

2 follow-up statements

975 
WWUS52 KTAE 212050
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
450 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

GAC099-201-212115-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0319.000000T0000Z-150721T2115Z/
EARLY GA-MILLER GA-
450 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL EARLY AND NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BLAKELY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTERVILLE...DAMASCUS...OLD DAMASCUS...CUBA AND HENTOWN. 

LAT...LON 3119 8488 3129 8495 3131 8494 3138 8484
      3134 8470 3130 8464 3129 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 320DEG 25KT 3132 8485 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

773 
WWUS52 KTAE 212101
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

GAC099-201-212111-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0319.000000T0000Z-150721T2115Z/
EARLY GA-MILLER GA-
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL EARLY AND NORTHWESTERN
MILLER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3119 8488 3129 8495 3131 8494 3138 8484
      3134 8470 3130 8464 3129 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 320DEG 25KT 3125 8479 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 21, 3:09 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 3:09 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A line of storms that formed along a surface trough just north of
our Alabama and Georgia counties this afternoon should remain
continuous as it moves southeast through the region. The potential
for strong downdrafts will exist within this line as a high
SBCAPE/dTheta-E environment awaits its arrival. Elsewhere only
isolated seabreeze showers and storms have been forming near the
Florida coast. So far, they've remained quite shallow. Outflow
interactions between these storms may generate new, stronger storms
as they interact with the approaching line later this evening. All
convection over land should come to an end by around 03z. Coastal
showers are expected once again tomorrow morning.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf
while a series of +PV anomalies continues to swing through an upper
lever trough in southeastern Canada. With 1000-700mb flow from the
west at less than 10 knots, we would normally see a typical sea-
breeze pattern favoring convection in north Florida that doesn't
move inland much. However, with the influence of the surface trough
to our north associated with the upper level +PV anomaly, we're
expecting another few days of active convection across the area,
with storms moving in from the north across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia in the early afternoon periods. Dew points will
stay in the 70s with models showing PW values of around 1.8-2", so
moisture will be plentiful for these storms as will instability with
model mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km both days and
afternoon SBCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Some of these storms will
be capable of producing downbursts with damaging wind gusts and
possibly some small hail. Temperatures will peak in the mid 90s
Wednesday, low-mid 90s Thursday, dipping to the mid 70s overnight.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Upper level ridging along the southern states will slowly retreat
westward. Meanwhile, the trough in southeastern Canada will lift off
the Atlantic coastline only to be replaced by another trough in
roughly the same spot. This upper level pattern will allow a series
of surface troughs and weak fronts to push across the southeast and
keep us in an active pattern for convection, especially when
combined with our summer sea-breeze pattern. PoPs Friday and
Saturday will be around 40-60%, lowering to a more normal 30-40%
Sunday through Tuesday between when the first upper level trough
lifts off the east coast and the second one replaces it mid-next
week. Temperatures will be near normal- peaking in the low 90s
during the day and cooling to the mid 70s overnight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms
for the duration of the TAF. The best chance for storms will be
at DHN and ABY this afternoon, followed by VLD later this evening.
There remains a low chance for patchy MVFR visibilities tomorrow
morning, too low to mention in the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

A tight surface pressure gradient will allow west-southwest winds
around 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft to prevail through the early
weekend, then high pressure will prevail, allowing lighter winds
and seas to return to the coastal waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected this week with
high relative humidity and scattered to numerous storms each day.

&&

.Hydrology...

An active pattern will remain in place for the area through the
weekend with rainfall totals over the next 5 days of 1.5-2.5".
Since our area rivers are at normal or even low flow levels, this
is not expected to cause any widespread flooding. However,
depending on how storms develop, there may be enhanced chances for
localized flooding, particularly in the Florida Big Bend where
we've already seen several days with higher rainfall totals over
the past week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  96  77  94  77 /  30  40  20  50  20
Panama City   81  91  79  89  80 /  40  30  20  30  30
Dothan        75  96  76  94  76 /  50  50  20  40  30
Albany        76  96  76  93  76 /  30  40  20  50  30
Valdosta      75  97  76  94  76 /  40  50  20  50  30
Cross City    77  93  77  91  77 /  30  40  30  50  30
Apalachicola  80  92  79  91  80 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 21, 3:34 PM EDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     TSTM WND GST     OZARK                   31.45N 85.65W
07/21/2015  E55 MPH          DALE               AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 55 MPH WINDS ON HIGHWAY 231 NEAR OZARK WITH
            VERY LOW VISIBILITY

&&

DVD

Local storm report, Jul 21, 3:35 PM EDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE BRONWOOD           31.84N 84.35W
07/21/2015                   TERRELL            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 118 NORTH OF JAMES WEBB ROAD.

&&

JLF

Local storm report, Jul 21, 3:45 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S ROBERTS CROSSROADS    31.60N 85.53W
07/21/2015                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 33 SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 68.

&&

JLF

Local storm report, Jul 21, 3:50 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW FORT GAINES        31.57N 85.10W
07/21/2015                   HENRY              AL   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 10E.

&&

JLF

Local storm report, Jul 21, 4:07 PM EDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N OZARK               31.52N 85.66W
07/21/2015                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 58 NEAR NORTH HWY 123.

&&

JLF

Local storm report, Jul 21, 4:22 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT GAINES             31.62N 85.05W
07/21/2015                   CLAY               GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN FORT GAINES

&&

DVD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 3:14 AM EDT	Heat Advisory	TAE	Baker, Ben Hill, Calhoun, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty and 13 more	16 hr
Jul 21, 2:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Randolph, Terrell	51 min
Jul 21, 2:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Lee, Terrell	48 min
Jul 21, 3:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Clay, Quitman, Randolph	48 min
Jul 21, 3:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Clay, Early	48 min
Jul 21, 5:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Baker, Calhoun, Colquitt, Dougherty, Mitchell, Worth	66 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Georgia, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.