Alert archive / Georgia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Tallahassee, FL

July 2, 20157 counties in Georgia

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2015, 3:07 PM EDT for 7 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 68 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2015, 3:07 PM EDT (19:07 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
In force: 68 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Baker County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Grady County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Worth County, GA

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 859 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 805 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 10:41 AM EDT, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 10:41 AM EDT, 4 hours 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1041 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THE 1000-700 MB
FLOW IS WESTERLY TODAY ON THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING WITH A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN 6 C/KM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
OFF TO THE WEST. OVERALL...THE CAM GUIDANCE FORECASTS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OF THE MEMBERS HAVE
EXPLICIT WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE...AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [645 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A RATHER BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH (MARKED BY THE 588 DM
LINE) REMAINING OVER CENTRAL AL AND GA. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY MOVING
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT, WITH ENOUGH MID-UPPER LAYER DRYING ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR LOWER POPS. THE POP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.
THESE VALUES ARE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS. WITH THE REDUCED CLOUD COVER COMES WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE MID
90S. DESPITE THE LOWER POPS, THE FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. IN
FACT, THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, STEEPER-THAN-AVERAGE MID LAYER LAPSE
RATES, AND RATHER HIGH SURFACE THETA-E VALUES, WOULD SUGGEST AN
INCREASED RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS- THOUGH ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL TRANSLATE
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEXT WEEK, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM TX. DESPITE
THIS RIDGING, THE MOS CONSENSUS POPS ARE STILL VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY (AROUND 40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA), PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRYING
ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WINDS WILL EITHER BE WEAK OR
HAVE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT, WHICH WOULD INDICATE A LATER START TO
SEABREEZE-GENERATED CONVECTION (AS OPPOSED TO STARTING IN THE
MORNING). THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S.

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN STORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AT DHN, ABY, VLD AND
TLH. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER AT ECP SO MENTIONED VCTS.

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  73  93  73  94 /  70  10  30  10  30
PANAMA CITY   86  78  88  78  89 /  50  10  10  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  93  74  93 /  70  10  20  10  30
ALBANY        90  73  92  73  93 /  70  20  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      91  72  93  73  95 /  70  20  40  10  30
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  94 /  40  10  20  10  30
APALACHICOLA  90  77  91  76  91 /  40  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:15 PM EDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHFORD                 31.18N 85.24W
07/02/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN IN ASHFORD.

&&

GODSEY

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:16 PM EDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COTTONWOOD              31.05N 85.30W
07/02/2015                   HOUSTON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN IN COTTONWOOD.

&&

GODSEY

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:37 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARGUTA                  31.57N 85.60W
07/02/2015                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CR-19.

&&

GODSEY

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:38 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINCKARD                31.31N 85.55W
07/02/2015                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CHURCH STREET.

&&

GODSEY

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:40 PM EDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLAKELY                 31.38N 84.94W
07/02/2015                   EARLY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF BLAKELY.

&&

GODSEY

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:58 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW PERRY-FOLEY AIRPOR 30.16N 83.64W
07/02/2015                   TAYLOR             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON WOODS CREEK ROAD.

&&

GODSEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 8:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Walton	33 min
Jul 2, 11:36 AM EDT	Rip Current Statement	TAE	Franklin, Gulf	12 hr
Jul 2, 12:00 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		60 min
Jul 2, 12:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin	48 min
Jul 2, 12:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Jackson, Leon, Liberty and 1 more	63 min
Jul 2, 12:55 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		65 min
Jul 2, 1:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Jackson	42 min
Jul 2, 1:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Leon	49 min
Jul 2, 2:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Jefferson, Leon	42 min
Jul 2, 2:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Jackson	67 min
Jul 2, 2:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Lafayette, Taylor	57 min
Jul 2, 3:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Dougherty, Lee, Tift, Turner, Worth	47 min
Jul 2, 3:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Berrien, Brooks, Colquitt, Cook, Lowndes, Tift and 1 more	59 min
Jul 2, 4:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Ben Hill, Irwin, Tift	66 min
Jul 2, 4:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Berrien, Lanier, Lowndes	41 min
Jul 2, 12:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Georgia, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.