Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1041 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THE 1000-700 MB
FLOW IS WESTERLY TODAY ON THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING WITH A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN 6 C/KM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
OFF TO THE WEST. OVERALL...THE CAM GUIDANCE FORECASTS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OF THE MEMBERS HAVE
EXPLICIT WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE...AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [645 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A RATHER BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH (MARKED BY THE 588 DM
LINE) REMAINING OVER CENTRAL AL AND GA. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY MOVING
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT, WITH ENOUGH MID-UPPER LAYER DRYING ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR LOWER POPS. THE POP WILL BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.
THESE VALUES ARE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS. WITH THE REDUCED CLOUD COVER COMES WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE MID
90S. DESPITE THE LOWER POPS, THE FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. IN
FACT, THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, STEEPER-THAN-AVERAGE MID LAYER LAPSE
RATES, AND RATHER HIGH SURFACE THETA-E VALUES, WOULD SUGGEST AN
INCREASED RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS- THOUGH ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL TRANSLATE
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEXT WEEK, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM TX. DESPITE
THIS RIDGING, THE MOS CONSENSUS POPS ARE STILL VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY (AROUND 40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA), PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DRYING
ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WINDS WILL EITHER BE WEAK OR
HAVE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT, WHICH WOULD INDICATE A LATER START TO
SEABREEZE-GENERATED CONVECTION (AS OPPOSED TO STARTING IN THE
MORNING). THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S.

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN STORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AT DHN, ABY, VLD AND
TLH. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER AT ECP SO MENTIONED VCTS.

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  73  93  73  94 /  70  10  30  10  30
PANAMA CITY   86  78  88  78  89 /  50  10  10  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  93  74  93 /  70  10  20  10  30
ALBANY        90  73  92  73  93 /  70  20  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      91  72  93  73  95 /  70  20  40  10  30
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  94 /  40  10  20  10  30
APALACHICOLA  90  77  91  76  91 /  40  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER