Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CAPE
VALUES ARE RUNNING 3000-4000J/KG, WITH A FEW STORMS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY
SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME.

WITH THE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ZONES, COOLER
TEMPERATURES HAVE PRECLUDED REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS ARE STILL APPROACHING THESE CRITERIA, SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AND DROP THE ADVISORY FOR
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY
WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE THROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD INTO CENTRAL GA FROM A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CARLOINA'S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MEAN 1000-700MB
FLOW WILL BE MODERATE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST (< 10 KTS) BOTH
DAYS (SEA BREEZE REGIME 4). FORECAST PW'S WILL BE AROUND 2.0"
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 1.75" THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR
FILTERING IN THE MID LEVELS. BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE TODAY AND THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC SITUATION, WENT ABOVE MOS POP GUIDANCE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
BUT IT APPEARS WE WILL JUST BE UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A
SHARP RIDGE OUT WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
NORTH WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SLIP
JUST ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO AT LEAST OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW OR NEAR CLIMO
(UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. DAILY INCREASES IN
WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND AN INCREASING CHOP ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN THE AFTERNOONS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. THERE ARE NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE STORMS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINING LOW. NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   76  94  75  94  76 /  20  50  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   80  91  78  88  79 /  20  40  20  40  30
DOTHAN        76  97  75  95  75 /  30  60  20  50  30
ALBANY        76  97  75  96  75 /  30  40  20  50  30
VALDOSTA      75  96  75  96  75 /  30  40  20  50  30
CROSS CITY    76  92  74  92  76 /  30  40  20  40  30
APALACHICOLA  79  92  79  91  79 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-
     CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-
     HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-JACKSON-NORTH
     WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-CALHOUN-CLAY-
     DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-
     RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COFFEE-DALE-
     GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S SUMATRA             29.98N 84.98W
06/23/2015                   FRANKLIN           FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 65 IN FRANKLIN COUNTY NEAR THE LIBERTY
            COUNTY BORDER.

&&

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