Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1145 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS MAKING
FOR A TRICKY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX FORECAST. STORMS
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND THE RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND THIS REGION AND KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 108. IN THE BIG BEND, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. WHERE THIS ACTIVITY OCCURS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE, WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOT.
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA,
CONVECTION WILL GET A LATER START, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN AREA, BUT LEFT THE REST INTACT.

AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TEMPORARILY REDUCE CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR-IFR RANGE AT TIMES
WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [324 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY COULD BE PARTICULARLY ACTIVE. WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, PREVENTING ANY HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM BEING MET.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO FURTHER WEAKEN, A
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BY SATURDAY, AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST BY SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION (SOME EVEN SHOW A PASSAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF). IT'S
UNLIKELY THIS FRONT WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, INSTEAD SERVING TO FURTHER FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ON MONDAY, THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, KEEPING AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND BEYOND,
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
LOWER 90S. IN FACT, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
80S FOR SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. DAILY INCREASES IN
WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND AN INCREASING CHOP ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

.FIRE WEATHER...
OTHER THAN HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST DUE TO HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS...THERE ARE
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE STORMS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINING LOW. NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   96  76  96  77  94 /  60  20  40  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  80  89  80  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
DOTHAN        98  76  98  75  95 /  50  20  40  20  50
ALBANY        98  76  96  75  95 /  60  20  40  20  50
VALDOSTA      97  76  98  76  96 /  60  20  40  20  50
CROSS CITY    97  76  93  76  92 /  30  20  30  20  40
APALACHICOLA  92  80  90  80  90 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-
     CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL
     WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND DIXIE-INLAND
     FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON-NORTH WALTON-
     SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-CALHOUN-CLAY-
     DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-
     RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COFFEE-DALE-
     GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD