Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

STACKED HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME STORMS FROM THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE
ENTER OUR EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HIGH TODAY, PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S,
LOW-MID 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MEAN MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER LAND AND COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

RATHER HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND
LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWS. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE
20-30% RANGE WITH THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH THE LACK OF A CLEAR LIFTING MECHANISM OTHER THAN
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE HOT SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF SUMMER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION,
AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH, FILLING IN OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, SO KEPT VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT ECP. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS IT OVER MOST
OF OUR LOCAL TERMINALS, WHILE LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS
IT DEVELOPING NEAR ECP/DHN, AND SREF DOESN'T SHOW ANY AT ALL.
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CONFIDENCE, LEFT BR OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
DAILY. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND THEREFORE WILL
NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  97  74  97  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
PANAMA CITY   78  88  77  87  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
DOTHAN        74  95  74  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
ALBANY        74  97  74  97  74 /  30  20  10  20  10
VALDOSTA      75  98  72  96  73 /  30  20  10  30  10
CROSS CITY    75  95  73  95  74 /  20  30  10  40  20
APALACHICOLA  76  91  76  91  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     BAY.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
451 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW MADISON           30.44N 83.48W
06/18/2015                   MADISON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR I-10 MILE MARKER 250

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
516 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW MADISON           30.44N 83.48W
06/18/2015                   MADISON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON I-10 MILE MARKER 250 BLOCKING BOTH
            WESTBOUND LANES. UPDATED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL INFO

&&

DVD