Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Tallahassee, FL

707 
WWUS52 KTAE 181920
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

FLC065-073-181929-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-150618T1945Z/
LEON FL-JEFFERSON FL-
320 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LEON AND
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3038 8376 3038 8379 3039 8379 3038 8380
      3040 8407 3064 8408 3063 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 168DEG 7KT 3046 8389 

$$

11-MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1013 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

STACKED HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ONCE AGAIN, PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 90S, LOW-MID 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER LAND AND COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY] SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE TRI-STATE AREA, SO CONTINUED
VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ECP AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [326 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THOUGH NORMALLY THE RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD WOULD
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE, MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIMITED COVERAGE, LIKELY DUE TO SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BY TUESDAY,
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH SUGGESTS ANOTHER STRETCH OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW WITH
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.HYDROLOGY...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE
WILL BE SCATTERED HOWEVER, SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   97  75  97  74  97 /  40  10  20  10  20
PANAMA CITY   89  79  88  78  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
DOTHAN        96  74  96  74  96 /  40  20  20  10  20
ALBANY        97  75  96  73  96 /  40  30  20  10  20
VALDOSTA      97  76  99  75  98 /  60  30  30  10  20
CROSS CITY    96  76  95  75  94 /  40  20  20  10  20
APALACHICOLA  91  77  88  77  88 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     BAY.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY