Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO KICK OFF TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 TODAY, INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA IS QUITE HIGH. WITH
THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE SEA-BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION, BETWEEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES
WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH, IN THE 106-110 RANGE. THE HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND.

AFTER THE SUN SETS, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CALM AND THE SEA-BREEZE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST
COAST SEA-BREEZE MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER SOME
OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO THE LOW TO MID
70S OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...
MAXIMUM HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF BILL
WILL TRACK TO THE MISSOURI AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO IMPACT TO
OUR AREA. INSTEAD, THE DEEP RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
UPPER 90S WITH THE CENTURY MARK LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS LIKE ALBANY
AND VALDOSTA. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 105
AND 108 DEGREES, JUST SHY OF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL JUST BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER, BUT STILL PLENTY HOT. POPS
BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND DROP
OFF SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY. WITH VERY HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH REMNANT OF BILL TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS WILL GIVE US ONLY THE SLIGHTEST
RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW CLIMO POPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-30% RANGE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 90S ON SATURDAY, BUT THEN INCH BACK TO THE
UPPER 90S AFTER THAT. 100-DEGREE TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
SPOTS. IT WILL NOT BE SURPRISING IF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS MET
ON A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE TRI-STATE AREA, SO CONTINUED
VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ECP. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ECP AND VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW WITH
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED HOWEVER, SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  99  73  97  74 /  20  30  20  30  10
PANAMA CITY   77  90  76  89  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
DOTHAN        72  98  74  96  73 /  20  40  20  20  10
ALBANY        74 100  74  98  74 /  20  40  30  20  10
VALDOSTA      73 100  73  97  73 /  20  30  30  30  20
CROSS CITY    74  97  74  95  73 /  20  30  20  20  20
APALACHICOLA  77  93  76  91  76 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL DIXIE-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL
     WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND
     JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND WAKULLA-LAFAYETTE-LEON-
     LIBERTY-MADISON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     BAY.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     BERRIEN-BROOKS-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-COOK-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LANIER-LEE-LOWNDES-MILLER-MITCHELL-
     QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1252 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW HOPEWELL           30.33N 83.50W
06/16/2015                   MADISON            FL   UTILITY COMPANY

            A GREEN CHERRY TREE FELL ON POWER LINES IN SOUTHERN
            MADISON COUNTY DURING TUESDAYS STORM CAUSING A POWER
            OUTAGE.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STOCKTON                30.94N 83.00W
06/17/2015                   LANIER             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES BLOWN DOWN IN STOCKTON

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
434 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE HAMBURG            30.54N 83.48W
06/17/2015                   MADISON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF LITTLE CAT ROAD AND FARM
            CENTER ROAD

0429 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW HAMBURG           30.55N 83.57W
06/17/2015                   MADISON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON LOVETT ROAD

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOSTON                  30.79N 83.79W
06/17/2015                   THOMAS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 84.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W FIVE POINTS         30.88N 83.83W
06/17/2015                   THOMAS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ONCOFFEE ROAD NEAR PATTON SPEEDWAY.

&&

WOOL