Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

...DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE LOWEST LEVELS,
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING NORTHERN WINDS, WHICH MAY ACT TO
KEEP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
PINNED MORE OR LESS IN PLACE TO WHERE THEY FORM. THE LAKE SEMINOLE
AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CONVERGENCE OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THIS
NORTHERN FLOW. OTHERWISE, WITH OVERALL LOWER CLOUD AND STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA (AND ANOTHER LATE START SEA-BREEZE DAY
EXPECTED), TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE 106-110 F RANGE. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM ET.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WE SHOULD
SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH VCTS AT ALL BUT
ECP STARTING AT 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [348 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST, IT'LL STILL BE QUITE WARM AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 106 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE. WITH A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

.MARINE...
WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.HYDROLOGY...
DESPITE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   99  72  99  74  98 /  40  20  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   92  78  91  77  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
DOTHAN        98  72  97  73  95 /  40  20  40  20  30
ALBANY       100  73 100  74  98 /  40  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA     100  72 101  74 101 /  40  20  40  20  30
CROSS CITY    98  73  96  76  95 /  20  10  30  20  30
APALACHICOLA  91  78  92  78  90 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL DIXIE-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL
     WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND
     JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND WAKULLA-LAFAYETTE-LEON-
     LIBERTY-MADISON.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     BERRIEN-BROOKS-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-COOK-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LANIER-LEE-LOWNDES-MILLER-MITCHELL-
     QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...BARRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1252 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW HOPEWELL           30.33N 83.50W
06/16/2015                   MADISON            FL   UTILITY COMPANY

            A GREEN CHERRY TREE FELL ON POWER LINES IN SOUTHERN
            MADISON COUNTY DURING TUESDAYS STORM CAUSING A POWER
            OUTAGE.

&&

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