Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 28, NWS Tallahassee, FL

November 8, 2015Holmes County, Washington County, Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this river flood warning at Nov 8, 2015, 1:06 PM CST for Holmes County, Washington County, Florida. It took effect at Nov 9, 2015, 12:00 AM CST. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 8, 2015, 1:06 PM CST (19:06 UTC)
In effect from: Nov 9, 2015, 12:00 AM CST
Expired: Nov 14, 2015, 12:00 AM CST
In force: 5 days
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Holmes County, FL, Washington County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Choctawhatchee River at Caryville (US 90) (CARF1).

Action stage: 10 ft
Minor stage: 14 ft
Moderate stage: 16 ft
Major stage: 20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02365500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

233 
WGUS42 KTAE 081906
FLWTAE
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
206 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

...The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Florida... 

  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-091906-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FL.W.0028.151109T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151109T0600Z.151112T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
106 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* From late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:00 PM Sunday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 13.9 feet by Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

9 follow-up statements

708 
WGUS82 KTAE 090357
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-100357-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.151111T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151111T1800Z.151113T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
957 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Choctawhatchee River near
Caryville (US 90).
* From Wednesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by Wednesday early afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 12.3 feet by Thursday evening. 
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-100356-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151110T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
957 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Choctawhatchee River
near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 14.2 feet by early
  Wednesday morning then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

384 
WGUS82 KTAE 091500
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-101500-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.151110T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T1200Z.151112T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
900 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* From Tuesday morning, until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 13.0 feet by Thursday evening.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-101500-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151114T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
900 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  8:45 AM Monday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and will continue.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.3 feet by 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

525 
WGUS82 KTAE 100159
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
859 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-110159-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.151110T0159Z-151114T1800Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T0118Z.151112T1800Z.151114T1200Z.NO/
759 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* From this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 12.9 feet by Thursday early afternoon. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Saturday morning.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-110158-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151114T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
759 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  7:45 PM Monday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.0 feet by 
  Friday evening then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

857 
WGUS82 KTAE 101500
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-111500-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151114T2100Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T0124Z.151112T1200Z.151114T1500Z.NO/
900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and will continue.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 13.4 feet by 
  Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  Saturday afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-111500-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151114T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  8:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and will continue.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.6 feet by 
  Friday evening then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

248 
WGUS82 KTAE 110035
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-120035-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151115T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T0124Z.151112T1800Z.151114T1800Z.NO/
635 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday evening.
* At  6:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 13.2 feet by 
  Thursday evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-120035-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151114T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
635 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  5:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.4 feet by 
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact: At 16.5 feet: Major flooding occurs along the east and west 
  banks of the Choctahatchee river from near the confluence with 
  Holmes creek to the Gulf of Mexico affecting many homes and fishing
  camps.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

289 
WGUS82 KTAE 111506
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-121506-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151114T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T0124Z.151112T0000Z.151113T1800Z.NO/
906 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Friday afternoon.
* At  8:01 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and will continue.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 12.9 feet by this 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Friday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-121506-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151114T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
906 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  8:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and will continue.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 14.9 feet by early
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

558 
WGUS82 KTAE 120129
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-130129-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151114T0400Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T0124Z.151112T0600Z.151113T2200Z.NO/
729 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Friday evening.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 12.9 feet by after
  midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-130129-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151113T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
729 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  6:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 14.7 feet by early
  Friday morning then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

449 
WGUS82 KTAE 121338
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-131338-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151114T0400Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T0124Z.151112T0700Z.151113T2200Z.NO/
738 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Friday evening.
* At  7:00 AM Thursday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and will continue.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-131338-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151117T0900Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151112T1800Z.151117T0300Z.NO/
738 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until late Monday night.
* At  6:45 AM Thursday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and will continue.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will remain steady near 14.5 feet over the next
  couple days before gradually falling. The river may remain above 
  flood stage into early next week.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

159 
WGUS82 KTAE 130126
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
826 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-140126-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151114T0600Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.151110T0124Z.151112T0700Z.151114T0000Z.NO/
726 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until late Friday night.
* At  7:00 PM Thursday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-140126-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151117T1500Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.151106T1537Z.151113T0600Z.151117T0900Z.NO/
726 PM CST THU NOV 12 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At  6:45 PM Thursday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 14.6 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 8, 9:24 AM CST, 3 hours 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 8, 9:24 AM CST, 3 hours 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

12Z objective analysis placed a front from near Jacksonville, to
near Perry, to just offshore of Cape San Blas, to near the mouth
of the Mississippi River and then snaking back to the southwest
over the central Gulf. There were several areas of low pressure
along the front, with one becoming better established near the
mouth of the Mississippi River. Surface observations suggest that
in our area the front has drifted north slightly as a warm front
over the past few hours, with the dewpoint at Apalachicola at 15Z
now up to 75 degrees and a slight southerly component to the
onshore winds at several Franklin County mesonet sites. The
position of this slow-moving warm front will be vital as the
heaviest rain should be focused along and just to the north of the
average position of the front. In general, we expect the front to
move very little over the next 24 hours as a surface low develops
along the front and tracks to just offshore of our Panhandle
counties. This would place the best chance for heavy rain in our
Florida zones, along and south of Interstate 10, and from
Tallahassee to the west. Our updated QPF is a blend of guidance
from WPC and a few high-res models that seem to be handling the
distribution and intensity of higher rain rates well so far. This
produces about 3-5 inch average rain totals in the aforementioned
area. Given these high amounts, and the potential for some heavier
rain rates (already observed just offshore on radar), we have
opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch for those areas.

Across the rest of the area, a steadier and more moderate rain is
expected through tonight. Average rain totals in those areas has
stayed very consistent with the previous forecast: about 2-3
inches. While steady rain of that amount, spread over a day or so,
should not lead to significant flooding problems, a few low-lying
areas could also see some flooding. We have not issued a watch
yet, but a Flood Watch could eventually be required for parts of
the area further inland.

Regarding temperatures, the values across the area have been a
little more extreme than models have suggested with Albany already
down to 57 degrees at 15Z, and Cross City up to 78. The more
substantial temperature gradient was reflected in updates to the
temperature forecast, and likely indicates that the front is a
little stronger than models are suggesting. We expect that may
help focus heavier rain closer to the front (closer to the coast),
and that global models may be overdoing inland rain forecasts by a
small amount.

Finally, radar has shown some shallow supercells at times
offshore, and as the warm front reaches parts of the coast, these
could conceivably affect a narrow part of our land areas close to
the Gulf. In general, rotation has been strongest when cells are
within about 10 miles of the warm front. An isolated tornado or
strong wind gust can't be ruled out.

&&

.Hydrology...

Observations, MRMS analysis, and dual pol radar estimates suggest
that rain rates over our land areas thus far have mainly been
below 0.5"/hr. This is expected to continue over the bulk of the
area through tonight, with the exception of areas along and south
of Interstate 10, and from Tallahassee to the west. Rainfall rate
estimates offshore (MRMS, EVX, TLH) have been considerably higher,
and at times have reached around 3"/hr. As the warm front becomes
anchored near the aforementioned areas, these heavier showers and
storms are expected to begin affecting parts of the area. For that
reason, flash flooding will be possible and a Flash Flood Watch
was issued for the Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, the steadier rain
may be unlikely to lead to flash flooding, but a long duration
moderate-heavy rain could lead to some minor flooding issues in
low-lying or urban areas.

&&

.Prev Discussion [303 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Much of the forcing for heavy rain will remain in place through
tonight. The low will be weakening as we move into Monday with the
heavy rain threat ending during the day. For a discussion on storm-
total rainfall and any flooding concerns, please see the hydrology
discussion below. Drier air will return for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be pretty steady tonight and be a few degrees
milder than today on Monday. By Tuesday, we will return to
seasonal readings with highs ranging from the lower 70s north to
around 80 near Cross City.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Zonal flow aloft will be in place over the Southeast at the start of
the period with warm and dry conditions expected for Wednesday. An
upper trough over the western U.S. will sweep quickly eastward and
help drive a cold front across the forecast area Thursday or
Thursday night. PoPs associated with this frontal passage will be
kept in the slight to low-end chance range. It will remain warm
ahead of the front, but not at the record-breaking levels that
we've seen recently. After frontal passage, we will begin to see
cooler nighttime lows which will finally dip close to seasonal
levels (upper 40s north to lower 50s south) by Friday night.

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday] IFR cigs will develop this morning and remain
in place through tonight. Widespread rain will occasionally be
heavy, keeping visibility limited as well. In addition, gusty
northeast winds will impact all terminals.

.Marine...
Small craft advisory conditions are expected to develop today across
the waters west of Apalachicola today as low pressure continues to
develop over the north central Gulf of Mexico. The eastern waters
should hold in the exercise caution range today, but the advisory
may need to be briefly extended eastward tonight. It should also
be noted that a risk for severe storms and waterspouts will be in
place today. As the low weakens and is absorbed by a front, winds
will quickly decrease on Monday. Light to moderate offshore winds
will then prevail through Tuesday night. Onshore winds will
increase ahead of the next front from Wednesday night into
Thursday with a frontal shift to northwest winds that afternoon.

.Fire Weather...
No concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  64  72  63  77 / 100 100  60  30  10
Panama City   70  64  72  61  75 / 100 100  60  20  10
Dothan        64  54  63  54  73 / 100  90  60  20  10
Albany        66  55  63  56  73 / 100 100  70  40  10
Valdosta      71  60  69  62  75 / 100 100  70  30  10
Cross City    79  69  78  67  80 /  80  90  70  30  20
Apalachicola  74  67  74  63  76 / 100 100  70  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-South Walton.

     Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland
     Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South
     Walton-Washington.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 8, 10:07 AM CST, 2 hours 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1107 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

FLZ014-115-081630-
COASTAL FRANKLIN FL-INLAND GULF FL-
1107 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 1130 AM EST...

AT 1107 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APALACHICOLA...BAY CITY AND APALACHICOLA AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 2981 8503 2980 8490 2978 8492 2978 8493
      2976 8493 2976 8494 2975 8494 2974 8497
      2975 8499 2974 8499 2973 8496 2973 8498
      2971 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 182DEG 17KT 2971 8499

08-LAMERS

Local storm report, Nov 8, 10:39 AM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1139 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       APALACHICOLA AIRPORT    29.72N 85.03W
11/08/2015  M2.03 INCH       FRANKLIN           FL   ASOS

            FELL IN 32 MINUTES.

&&

08-LAMERS

Local storm report, Nov 8, 10:58 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1158 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     HEAVY RAIN       APALACHICOLA AIRPORT    29.72N 85.03W
11/08/2015  M3.77 INCH       FRANKLIN           FL   ASOS

            3.77 INCHES IN ONE HOUR ENDING AT 1153 AM EST. 2.88
            INCHES OF THAT FELL IN 41 MINUTES.

&&

08-LAMERS

Local storm report, Nov 8, 12:03 PM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
103 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     FLOOD            APALACHICOLA            29.72N 84.99W
11/08/2015                   FRANKLIN           FL   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER WAS REPORTED ON PARTS OF HIGHWAY 98 NEAR 12TH
            STREET. NO SPECIFIC DEPTH REPORTED...BUT CAUTION SIGNS
            WERE BEING PLACED NEARBY.

&&

08-LAMERS

Local storm report, Nov 8, 12:44 PM CST, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW APALACHICOLA      29.73N 85.00W
11/08/2015  M7.52 INCH       FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR TODAY.

&&

08-LAMERS

Local storm report, Nov 8, 12:47 PM CST, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
147 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE EASTPOINT         29.77N 84.82W
11/08/2015  M3.20 INCH       FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY. 1.59 INCHES FELL IN 30 MINUTES.
            MEASURED AT THE FRANKLIN COUNTY SCHOOL WEATHERSTEM.

&&

08-LAMERS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 8, 12:06 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		24 min
Nov 8, 12:34 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		56 min
Nov 8, 1:32 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		58 min
Nov 8, 2:24 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		66 min
Nov 8, 2:47 AM CST	Rip Current Statement	TAE	Bay, Franklin, Gulf, Walton	45 hr
Nov 8, 4:16 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		59 min
Nov 8, 5:53 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		67 min
Nov 8, 6:55 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		65 min
Nov 8, 7:53 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		82 min
Nov 8, 8:50 AM CST	Flash Flood Watch	TAE	Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 5 more	24 hr
Nov 8, 9:10 AM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		65 min
Nov 8, 10:07 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Franklin	23 min
Nov 8, 10:47 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	TAE	Franklin	118 min
Nov 8, 11:13 AM CST	Flood Watch	TAE	Jefferson, Madison	22 hr
Nov 8, 12:16 PM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		59 min
Nov 8, 1:03 PM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		57 min
Nov 8, 2:14 PM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		2 hr
Nov 8, 4:12 PM CST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		63 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.