Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 527

October 31, 201516 parishes in Louisiana; Jasper County, Newton County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 31, 2015, 6:54 AM CDT for 16 parishes in Louisiana; Jasper County, Newton County, Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 31, 2015, 6:54 AM CDT (11:54 UTC)
Expired
Oct 31, 2015, 11:53 AM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Jasper County, TX, Newton County, TX

The radar

The Lake Charles radar (KLCH), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
30%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 31, 7:00 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHBeauregard6 hr
Oct 31, 7:16 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHRapides, Vernon44 min
Oct 31, 7:24 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHVernon5 hr
Oct 31, 7:28 AM CDTTornado WarningLCHBeauregard, Vernon17 min
Oct 31, 8:12 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHBeauregard, Vernon5 hr
Oct 31, 8:46 AM CDTTornado WarningLCHRapides, Vernon44 min
Oct 31, 8:47 AM CDTTornado WarningLCHBeauregard28 min
Oct 31, 9:11 AM CDTTornado WarningLCHVernon49 min
Oct 31, 9:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHBeauregard27 min
Oct 31, 9:29 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHRapides, Vernon3 hr
Oct 31, 10:00 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHVernon30 min
Oct 31, 10:23 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 3 more37 min
Oct 31, 10:28 AM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedLCHRapides22 min
Oct 31, 10:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAvoyelles, Rapides67 min
Oct 31, 11:00 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHRapides90 min
Oct 31, 11:02 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLCHBeauregard, Calcasieu88 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2015-10-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2015-10-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 326 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-93 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
899 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
326 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
483 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 31, 10:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 8 more57 min
Oct 31, 11:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, Avoyelles, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberia and 18 more89 min
Oct 31, 11:45 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Cameron, Concordia and 27 more8 hr
Oct 31, 1:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 22 more55 min
Oct 31, 3:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 22 more54 min
Oct 31, 5:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 22 more93 min
Oct 30, 8:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Dimmit, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Kimble and 12 more113 min
Oct 30, 11:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Blanco, Edwards, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr and 7 more2 hr
Oct 31, 1:17 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Comal and 6 more58 min
Oct 31, 1:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Harris and 3 more114 min
Oct 31, 2:57 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 5 more9 hr
Oct 31, 4:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Chambers119 min
Oct 31, 7:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Jefferson85 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.