Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Lake Charles, LA

149 
WGUS74 KLCH 311329
FFSLCH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
829 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LAC115-311715-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-151031T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON LA-
829 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON PARISH...

AT 826 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE 
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ONGOING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ROSEPINE...PITKIN...FORT POLK...DERIDDER...FULLERTON...LEANDER...
CRAVENS AND PICKERING.

SOME OF THE LOCAL DRAINAGES THAT WILL SEE FLOODING ARE BUT NOT 
LIMITED TO LITTLE CLEAR CREEK...PIN BRANCH...HURRICANE 
BRANCH...BUNDICK CREEK AND WHISKY CHITTO CREEK.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3117 9283 3088 9284 3088 9338 3089 9339
      3103 9340

$$

BRAZZELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
540 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN
ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA. TOW
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ARE EVIDENT...ONE NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE OTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER NW MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF AXIS...A 40-50KT
LLJ WAS NOTED ACROSS EAST TEXAS WRN LA...WHICH IS HELPING FUNNEL
RICH GULF MSTR INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BOOST PWATS
INTO THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...EXCEEDING CLIMO NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL LA...WITH AN UPSTREAM N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT NOTED OVER CENTRAL TX.

INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA...FUELED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LLJ AND RESULTING WAA REGIME...AND SUBTLE IMPULSES
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION THUS FAR OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH THE NWD DEPARTURE OF THE WMFNT
ALLOWING FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE AN OVERALL
LIMITING FACTOR...ALONG WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF. NONETHELESS...CONCUR WITH SPC
ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT OF ENTIRE AREA IN SLGT
RISK...WITH TORNADO/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS. THE HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONVECTION BEING
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAIN PRODUCTION...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
EXTREME RAINFALL RATES.

CDFNT...AND ASSOCIATED N-S BAND OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX...IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY...THOUGH HOW QUICKLY REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROF OUT WEST BEGINS TO CUT OFF AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH
WEST TX AND NRN MEXICO...AND A FRONTAL WAVE OR TWO DEVELOP AND
LIFT NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BOTH OF THESE WOULD TEND TO SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION.  A GENERAL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL OUT OF EAST TX AND WRN LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA THIS EVENING...WITH THE FORECAST BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS MORE OF A SPLIT
IN THE GUIDANCE. HAVE HELD OF EXTENDING THE FFA BEYOND ITS
CURRENT END TIME OF 7 PM...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW FURTHER
EVALUATE HOW THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.

RAINS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNEVENTFUL...WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF APPROACHES.

13

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAKENING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA RELAXES. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...TIDAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST...WITH WATER
LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES.
THESE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  67  73  58 / 100  60  60  40
LCH  79  69  76  61 / 100  60  40  20
LFT  80  70  74  61 / 100  90  80  30
BPT  79  68  76  61 / 100  40  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ052>054-073-
     074.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ215.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
     455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
554 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
011100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
554 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR THE RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
ACTUAL TIDES REACHING 3 TO 4 FT MLLW AT THE TIME OF PREDICTED HIGH
TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...ONLY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-011100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
554 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY AS
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TXZ201-310945-
HARDIN TX-
354 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TYLER...NORTHWESTERN
ORANGE...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...HARDIN AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 353 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIGHLANDS TO NEAR SOUR
LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...KOUNTZE...SOUR
LAKE...SARATOGA... VILLAGE MILLS...BATSON AND HONEY ISLAND.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3053 9433 3026 9411 3022 9412 3020 9410
      3018 9416 3019 9418 3018 9419 3019 9421
      3018 9421 3017 9424 3017 9427 3014 9428
      3010 9435 3010 9441 3011 9443 3011 9460
      3035 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 236DEG 37KT 2984 9504 3020 9443

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LAZ030-041-TXZ259>262-311215-
BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-NORTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN
NEWTON-NORTHERN NEWTON-
630 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN VERNON...
WESTERN BEAUREGARD AND NORTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES...SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER AND CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 629 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CALL TO NEAR WRIGHTS SETTLEMENT TO NEAR EVADALE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRBYVILLE...MERRYVILLE...FIELDS...EVADALE...CALL...BON WEIR...
BUNA...BIVENS...DEVILS POCKET...OLD SALEM...TROUT CREEK...WRIGHTS
SETTLEMENT...BANCROFT...ORETTA AND BLEAKWOOD.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3057 9403 3092 9358 3089 9357 3088 9357
      3087 9356 3053 9340 3027 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 240DEG 27KT 3061 9390 3048 9386 3034 9402

TINGLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SILSBEE                 30.34N 94.18W
10/31/2015                   HARDIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT LEAST 2 FEET OF WATER ALREADY REPORTED ON THE ROADS.

&&

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
723 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROSEPINE                30.92N 93.28W
10/31/2015                   VERNON             LA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT ON FLOODING ON HWY 171 IN ROSEPINE

&&

TWH