Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 396

July 8, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 8, 2015, 6:05 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 8, 2015, 6:05 PM CDT (23:05 UTC)
Expired
Jul 9, 2015, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 60 counties

Alexander County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Marion County, IL, Massac County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Livingston County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Madison County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 6:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHWayne25 min
Jul 8, 7:02 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXMonroe28 min
Jul 8, 7:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHBollinger, Wayne30 min
Jul 8, 8:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHCape Girardeau, Scott26 min
Jul 8, 8:42 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHAlexander18 min
Jul 8, 9:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHAlexander, Johnson, Pulaski, Union27 min
Jul 8, 9:46 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHAlexander, Johnson, Pulaski, Union3 hr
Jul 8, 10:50 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHJohnson, Pope, Saline, Williamson3 hr
Jul 8, 10:54 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHJackson, Johnson, Union, Williamson2 hr
Jul 8, 11:44 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHGallatin, Hardin3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 256 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2015-07-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2015-07-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -94 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1130 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

055 
WWUS20 KWNS 082302
SEL6  
SPC WW 082302
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-090600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
  SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
  WESTERN KENTUCKY
  SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM
  UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RICH MOISTURE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...GIVEN SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS THAT NOW APPEAR PROBABLE. 
ISOLATED NON-TORNADIC WIND DAMAGE ALSO IS POSSIBLE.  SEVERE-STORM
POTENTIAL SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF OWENSBORO
KENTUCKY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...EDWARDS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 1:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Jackson, Johnson, Monroe, Perry and 4 more2 hr
Jul 8, 3:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Clay, Clinton, Edwards, Franklin and 23 more113 min
Jul 8, 5:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Floyd, Harrison, Perry92 min
Jul 8, 1:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChristian, Douglas, Greene, Howell, Ozark, Stone and 3 more92 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.