Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 2, 2015, 9:51 AM EDT for 25 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 2, 2015, 9:51 AM EDT (13:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 2, 2015, 4:52 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 25 counties
Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Chippewa County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 10:34 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Cheboygan, Presque Isle | 41 min |
| Aug 2, 11:21 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Leelanau | 54 min |
| Aug 2, 11:40 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Manistee | 38 min |
| Aug 2, 11:52 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska | 53 min |
| Aug 2, 12:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Wexford | 45 min |
| Aug 2, 12:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Cheboygan, Crawford, Otsego | 66 min |
| Aug 2, 12:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Montmorency, Oscoda | 66 min |
| Aug 2, 1:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Alpena, Presque Isle | 56 min |
| Aug 2, 1:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Gladwin | 30 min |
| Aug 2, 1:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Iosco, Ogemaw, Oscoda | 36 min |
| Aug 2, 1:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac, Iosco | 39 min |
| Aug 2, 3:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Kalkaska, Missaukee | 50 min |
| Aug 2, 3:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Benzie, Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Manistee, Wexford | 63 min |
| Aug 2, 4:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Crawford, Roscommon | 55 min |
| Aug 2, 4:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Antrim, Charlevoix, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Otsego and 2 more | 59 min |
| Aug 2, 4:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Ogemaw | 57 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 98 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1495 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 205 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 5:21 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gogebic, Iron, Ontonagon | 2 hr |
| Aug 2, 8:51 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Crawford, Delta, Dickinson and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 2, 12:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Iosco, Missaukee, Montmorency, Ogemaw, Oscoda and 2 more | 56 min |
| Aug 2, 1:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Delta, Dickinson, Iron, Menominee | 2 hr |
| Aug 2, 2:56 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clinton, Genesee, Ingham, Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb and 6 more | 64 min |
| Aug 2, 3:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Gratiot and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 2, 3:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Allegan, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Barry and 35 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 2, 6:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Clinton, Genesee, Gladwin, Gratiot, Ingham and 15 more | 97 min |
| Aug 2, 6:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Bay, Calhoun, Clare, Clinton and 34 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.