Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 20, 2015, 6:42 PM CDT for 6 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 20, 2015, 6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 20, 2015, 11:46 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 62 counties
Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Obion County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 6:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Bollinger, Wayne | 44 min |
| Jul 20, 6:54 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | PAH | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Stoddard, Wayne | 36 min |
| Jul 20, 7:23 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | PAH | Union | 37 min |
| Jul 20, 7:42 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | PAH | Alexander, Union | 33 min |
| Jul 20, 8:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Johnson, Massac, Pulaski, Union | 43 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 285 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -259 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1760 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 29 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 6:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Randolph | 97 min |
| Jul 19, 7:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Jackson, Johnson, Monroe, Perry, Pulaski and 2 more | 118 min |
| Jul 20, 1:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Bell, Breathitt, Casey, Clay, Clinton and 25 more | 85 min |
| Jul 20, 3:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Bollinger, Butler and 42 more | 115 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kentucky, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.