Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21

April 3, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Apr 3, 2015, 1:52 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 3, 2015, 1:52 AM CDT (06:52 UTC)
Expired
Apr 3, 2015, 6:00 AM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 39 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 3, 1:56 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOregon34 min
Apr 3, 2:05 AM CDTTornado WarningSGFCherokee40 min
Apr 3, 2:08 AM CDTTornado WarningTSACraig, Ottawa37 min
Apr 3, 2:09 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCherokee, Crawford51 min
Apr 3, 2:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton, Jasper, Newton62 min
Apr 3, 2:42 AM CDTTornado WarningTSAOttawa17 min
Apr 3, 2:45 AM CDTTornado WarningSGFNewton45 min
Apr 3, 3:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Barton, Dade, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton42 min
Apr 3, 3:43 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Christian, Lawrence, Stone, Taney47 min
Apr 3, 4:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Christian, Douglas, Ozark, Stone, Taney47 min
Apr 3, 4:52 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence, Stone3 hr
Apr 3, 5:01 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFOzark, Taney6 hr
Apr 3, 5:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark, Taney43 min
Apr 3, 5:36 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFShannon24 min
Apr 3, 5:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell, Ozark30 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2015-04-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1838 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2015-04-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 104 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1838 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1146 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
5.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

235 
WWUS20 KWNS 030651
SEL1  
SPC WW 030651
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-031100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI
  EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 150 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
    POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.
 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...WW 18...WW 19...WW
20...

DISCUSSION...SVR MCS WITH HISTORY OF SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT-SVR GUSTS
AND SPORADIC LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND WILL
CROSS WW AREA...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR BUT
CONTINUING HAIL/WIND THREAT IN MEANTIME.  REF SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 195 FOR ADDITIONAL/NEAR-TERM METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29050.


...EDWARDS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 2, 7:02 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Marion8 hr
Apr 2, 10:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Marion93 min
Apr 3, 1:16 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Craighead and 13 more59 min
Apr 3, 1:35 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton and 14 more6 hr
Apr 3, 5:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton, Greene and 13 more2 hr
Apr 3, 12:14 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMississippi8 hr
Apr 3, 3:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 6 more93 min
Apr 3, 5:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCUnion2 hr
Apr 3, 5:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshley, Chicot4 hr
Apr 2, 7:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Cloud, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney and 34 more85 min
Apr 2, 9:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 35 more5 hr
Apr 2, 11:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Elk, Greenwood, Harvey, McPherson, Reno and 3 more61 min
Apr 3, 1:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Coffey, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho and 2 more63 min
Apr 2, 7:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve and 3 more58 min
Apr 2, 10:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Iron and 13 more6 hr
Apr 3, 3:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCScott66 min
Apr 3, 4:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChristian, Dent, Douglas, Howell, Laclede, Oregon and 8 more83 min
Apr 3, 11:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMississippi, Pemiscot94 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.