Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Apr 3, 2015, 1:52 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 3, 2015, 1:52 AM CDT (06:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 3, 2015, 6:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
All 39 counties
Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 1:56 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Oregon | 34 min |
| Apr 3, 2:05 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | Cherokee | 40 min |
| Apr 3, 2:08 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Craig, Ottawa | 37 min |
| Apr 3, 2:09 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Cherokee, Crawford | 51 min |
| Apr 3, 2:28 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barton, Jasper, Newton | 62 min |
| Apr 3, 2:42 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Ottawa | 17 min |
| Apr 3, 2:45 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | Newton | 45 min |
| Apr 3, 3:18 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Barton, Dade, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton | 42 min |
| Apr 3, 3:43 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Christian, Lawrence, Stone, Taney | 47 min |
| Apr 3, 4:28 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Ozark, Stone, Taney | 47 min |
| Apr 3, 4:52 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Barry, Lawrence, Stone | 3 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:01 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Ozark, Taney | 6 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:02 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Ozark, Taney | 43 min |
| Apr 3, 5:36 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Shannon | 24 min |
| Apr 3, 5:45 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Howell, Ozark | 30 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1838 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1146 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 104 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.8
- Supercell composite
- 5.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
235
WWUS20 KWNS 030651
SEL1
SPC WW 030651
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-031100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 21
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 150 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...WW 18...WW 19...WW
20...
DISCUSSION...SVR MCS WITH HISTORY OF SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT-SVR GUSTS
AND SPORADIC LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND WILL
CROSS WW AREA...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR BUT
CONTINUING HAIL/WIND THREAT IN MEANTIME. REF SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 195 FOR ADDITIONAL/NEAR-TERM METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29050.
...EDWARDSSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 7:02 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Marion | 8 hr |
| Apr 2, 10:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Boone, Carroll, Marion | 93 min |
| Apr 3, 1:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Craighead and 13 more | 59 min |
| Apr 3, 1:35 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton and 14 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton, Greene and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 3, 12:14 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Mississippi | 8 hr |
| Apr 3, 3:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 6 more | 93 min |
| Apr 3, 5:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 2 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 4 hr |
| Apr 2, 7:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Cloud, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney and 34 more | 85 min |
| Apr 2, 9:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 35 more | 5 hr |
| Apr 2, 11:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Elk, Greenwood, Harvey, McPherson, Reno and 3 more | 61 min |
| Apr 3, 1:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Coffey, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho and 2 more | 63 min |
| Apr 2, 7:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve and 3 more | 58 min |
| Apr 2, 10:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Iron and 13 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 3, 3:39 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Scott | 66 min |
| Apr 3, 4:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Christian, Dent, Douglas, Howell, Laclede, Oregon and 8 more | 83 min |
| Apr 3, 11:56 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Mississippi, Pemiscot | 94 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.