Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 976

June 11, 201512 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2015, 4:51 PM CDT for 12 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 11, 2015, 4:51 PM CDT (21:51 UTC)
Expired: Jun 11, 2015, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

Counties Clark County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Harper County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286Jun 11, 5:05 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 78 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -332 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1776 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 164 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 346 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

621 
ACUS11 KWNS 112152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112151 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-112245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 112151Z - 112245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NWRN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK PNHDL INVOF A COLD
FRONT WHICH HAS SETTLED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY
FORMING IN A RELATIVELY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.  MOREOVER...BACKED SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH A BELT OF 30 KT FLOW IN
THE MID TROPOSPHERE...YIELDING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERE HOURS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.  OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ONGOING OVER SERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN KS WITHIN
THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36460295 36790295 36960261 36970192 37460193 37870188
            38190142 38130078 38029985 37779944 37319922 37049935
            36729959 36400030 36170088 36120154 36060219 36460295

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 12:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny, Morton and 4 more	94 min
Jun 11, 1:01 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Jackson, Marshall and 6 more	119 min
Jun 11, 4:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Barber, Chase, Comanche, Doniphan, Douglas and 18 more	58 min
Jun 11, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 13 more	9 hr
Jun 11, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Chase, Coffey, Doniphan and 19 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.