Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 968
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2015, 11:56 AM MDT for 14 counties in Colorado; 10 counties in Kansas; Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 11, 2015, 11:56 AM MDT (17:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 11, 2015, 1:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 26 counties
Arapahoe County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Grant County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 125 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -49 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 884 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
869
ACUS11 KWNS 111757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111756
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-111930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SWRN KS...FAR NERN NM...AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111756Z - 111930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA....MOST LIKELY SERN CO.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF CO SEWD
TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND THEN ARCING NEWD ACROSS SWRN INTO
N-CNTRL KS TO A SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS E-CNTRL AND
SERN CO...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE
POST-FRONTAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP PER
RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA...AROUND 6.5-7.0 DEG C/KM...STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE MCD AREA.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN STATES WITH EMBEDDED SPEED/VORTICITY
MAXIMA IS APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ENCOURAGE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT E
OF THE FRONT RANGE IN CO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE...POSING A
LARGE HAIL RISK GIVEN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO ALLOW CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO
HAVE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. BACKED ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS IN SERN CO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD
OCCUR...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SRH IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG. FURTHER S ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER N.
..GLEASON/HART.. 06/11/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38610109 36900051 36380099 36260216 36570312 37010383
37600463 38500484 39350498 39650473 39850446 39730364
39130222 38610109SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 12:14 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert, El Paso and 8 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 11, 12:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Logan, Morgan, Weld | 116 min |
| Jun 11, 1:32 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archuleta, Dolores, Hinsdale, La Plata, Mineral, Montezuma and 4 more | 118 min |
| Jun 11, 2:38 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Custer, Elbert and 9 more | 97 min |
| Jun 11, 12:01 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Jackson, Marshall and 6 more | 119 min |
| Jun 11, 3:47 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Barber, Chase, Comanche, Doniphan, Douglas and 18 more | 58 min |
| Jun 11, 3:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Haskell and 6 more | 54 min |
| Jun 11, 4:03 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 13 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 11, 4:22 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Chase, Coffey, Doniphan and 19 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.