Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 913

June 6, 20156 counties in Minnesota; 10 counties in North Dakota; 11 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2015, 3:05 PM CDT for 6 counties in Minnesota; 10 counties in North Dakota; 11 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 6, 2015, 3:05 PM CDT (20:05 UTC)
Expired: Jun 6, 2015, 4:30 PM CDT
In force: 85 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 27 counties

Big Stone County, MN, Clay County, MN, Grant County, MN, Norman County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Traill County, ND, Brown County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Day County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263Jun 6, 5:05 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 42 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -168 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1110 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

264 
ACUS11 KWNS 062005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062005 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...NE SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 062005Z - 062130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND AND NE
SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CAN NOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL
SD WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL ND AND WCNTRL SD. A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACROSS ECNTRL SD INTO SE
ND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S F AND A POCKET
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INITIATE STORMS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THIS CONVECTION EWD ACROSS THE MCD
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D VWPS AT GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN
SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHICH SHOULD ENABLE SOME OF THE CELLS
TO ORGANIZE. ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS
HAVE ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO LINE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/HART.. 06/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44879693 44819903 45009981 45569984 46789939 47329815
            47469754 47509663 47179607 46669574 45539612 44879693

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 6, 2:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Rock	88 min
Jun 6, 3:40 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Lincoln, Pipestone, Rock	5 hr
Jun 6, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Becker, Big Stone, Chippewa, Clay, Douglas, Grant and 14 more	6 hr
Jun 6, 6:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lincoln, Pipestone, Rock	116 min
Jun 5, 10:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fall River, Oglala Lakota	58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.