Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 892
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2015, 7:20 PM MDT for 6 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 4, 2015, 7:20 PM MDT (01:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 4, 2015, 9:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 945 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -49 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2145 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -49 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
235
ACUS11 KWNS 050120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050120
COZ000-050345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050120Z - 050345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME SVR-TSTM RISK
THIS EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW REMAINS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED TO A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
TSTM NOW OVER SERN ELBERT COUNTY EXTENDS WWD/WNWWD FROM THE RFD OF
THE STORM THROUGH NRN EL PASO COUNTY TO THE FRONT RANGE SW OF CASTLE
ROCK. A CONTINUED STREAM OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S/ FROM THE E/ESE CONTINUES
TO BE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN SURMOUNTING H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM PER THE 00Z DNR RAOB...MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR
TSTM/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUCH RISK WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED
E/W FROM N OF SPD TO N OF TAD.
POSSIBLE INITIATION MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY STEM FROM
ASCENT INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/RELATED ENHANCED SRH. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL
THAT THE PERSISTENT SUPERCELL WOULD EVENTUALLY REACH PARTS OF
CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND EVENTUAL STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL MLCINH MAY
PROVE DELETERIOUS TOWARD MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAINABILITY AFTER DUSK.
..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...
LAT...LON 37580231 37520425 38150506 38650516 38930500 38950444
38430416 38360224 37580231SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 6:06 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Kit Carson, Yuma | 5 hr |
| Jun 4, 8:20 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and 2 more | 115 min |
| Jun 5, 12:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Bent, Broomfield, Crowley, Denver and 14 more | 86 min |
| Jun 5, 1:09 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Boulder, Broomfield and 18 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 5, 4:22 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Phillips, Yuma | 53 min |
| Jun 5, 4:44 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Phillips, Sedgwick, Yuma | 7 hr |
| Jun 5, 5:59 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kit Carson | 61 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.