Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 813
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2015, 4:49 PM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 27, 2015, 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC)
- Expired
- May 27, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 63 counties
Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Franklin County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Washington County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Essex County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 101 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -166 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 994 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 188 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 193 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
667
ACUS11 KWNS 272050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272049
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-272215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...FROM WRN ME SSWWD TO NJ/ERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227...
VALID 272049Z - 272215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY ACROSS PARTICULARLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA. AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
MAINTENANCE...AND SHEAR LIKEWISE SUPPORTS CONTINUED SEVERE RISK.
WITH A VERY WARM AIRMASS INDICATED E OF THE WW...WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ENHANCEMENT TO DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW
WINDS...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM.
..GOSS.. 05/27/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 39637409 39507483 39767604 41507513 42177433 43007394
45277126 45307015 44606996 42577217 41767243 40767376
39637409SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 12:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Northwest Hills Planning Region | 6 hr |
| May 27, 2:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr | |
| May 27, 5:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 4 hr |
| May 27, 7:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 54 min | |
| May 27, 6:17 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aroostook, Penobscot, Piscataquis | 58 min |
| May 27, 11:50 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berkshire | 85 min |
| May 27, 12:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer and 8 more | 54 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.