Mesoscale Discussion 652

Issued

May 15, 2015, 6:40 PM CDT (23:40 UTC)

Expired

May 15, 2015, 8:45 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

892 
ACUS11 KWNS 152341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152340 
MOZ000-160145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152340Z - 160145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...INCLUDING A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 2330Z DEPICTS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MO HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION...AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. 23Z RAP
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM. THE VWP FROM KEAX
DOES SHOW SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 0-3KM...AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR RANGES FROM AROUND 25 KT ACROSS S-CNTRL MO...TO 40 KT ACROSS
N-CNTRL MO CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. 

THIS MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ONE SUCH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH A MESOCYCLONE
AND SOME LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WAS MOVING FROM SALINE INTO HOWARD
COUNTY MO. THIS SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. REGARDLESS...THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

..GLEASON/HART.. 05/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36699297 36789419 38309392 39659408 39929324 40099176
            38309099 36879176 36699297

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.