Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 4
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2015, 3:56 AM CST for Harmon County, Jackson County, Tillman County, Oklahoma; 30 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 2, 2015, 3:56 AM CST (09:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 2, 2015, 10:00 AM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 33 counties
Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Andrews County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Borden County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Ector County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Howard County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Motley County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 835 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -183 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -112 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
936
ACUS11 KWNS 020956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020956
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-021600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX...NW TX...FAR SW OK
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 020956Z - 021600Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NEAR MIDLAND AND LUBBOCK NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF
VERNON TX EXTENDING INTO FAR SW OK. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A TENTH
OF AN INCH PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG
BEND NEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS BAND OF ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A
NWD MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING FROM NEAR MIDLAND NEWD TO
SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S F NEAR MIDLAND TO AROUND 32 F IN FAR SW OK. THIS SUBFREEZING
AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE 06Z NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE HEAVIEST IN AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LUBBOCK
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WEST TX. FREEZING-RAIN RATES SHOULD REACH A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN MANY AREAS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICING ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. FREEZING-RAIN
RATES MAY ALSO REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR IN NW TX AND FAR SW
OK WHERE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 01/02/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34879923 34479879 33889873 33299939 32160124 31330285
32420327 33790183 34800002 34879923SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 11:46 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Fisher, Glasscock, Haskell, Irion, Jones and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 2, 11:07 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Crosby, Dawson, Dickens, Ector and 6 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.