Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 3
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2015, 11:46 PM CST for 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 1, 2015, 11:46 PM CST (05:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 2, 2015, 3:45 AM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Coke County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jones County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Upton County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 481 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 70 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 99 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
127
ACUS11 KWNS 020547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020546
TXZ000-020945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST THU JAN 01 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND TO NW TX
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 020546Z - 020945Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL FOCUS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE BIG
BEND OF TX...NEWD TO NEAR ABI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ICING WILL
BE HEAVIEST WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 0.10
INCH PER HOUR.
DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS FAR
WEST TX...PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED FROM PECOS COUNTY...NEWD TO TAYLOR COUNTY AND
THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED ALONG THIS ZONE AND GIVEN THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800MB
MAY YIELD 300+J/KG MUCAPE AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY BE
NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST THINKING IS THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY NEAR ABI. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY COOLER ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH READINGS MOSTLY BETWEEN 26-29F. FOR THIS REASON IT
APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ICING WITH RATES APPROACHING 0.10 INCH PER HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE.
..DARROW.. 01/02/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30530354 33309995 33229896 32209945 31020097 29810298
30530354SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 3:56 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Baylor, Borden, Childress, Cottle, Crosby and 24 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 2, 11:07 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Crosby, Dawson, Dickens, Ector and 6 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.