Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 266

April 9, 201511 counties in Indiana; 27 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 9, 2015, 9:27 PM EDT for 11 counties in Indiana; 27 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 9, 2015, 9:27 PM EDT (01:27 UTC)
Expired: Apr 9, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

All 38 counties

Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Van Buren County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51Apr 9, 9:55 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 171 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 682 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 332 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 337 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 9, 9:01 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Gibson, Knox, Montgomery, Parke, Pike and 5 more	89 min
Apr 9, 9:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Benton, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton and 20 more	5 hr
Apr 9, 11:56 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 45 more	94 min
Apr 10, 1:37 AM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bartholomew, Clark, Crawford, Dearborn, Decatur, Dubois and 19 more	5 hr
Apr 10, 12:56 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barry, Bay, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 15 more	94 min
Apr 10, 2:54 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Hillsdale, Ingham, Jackson, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 5 more	66 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.