Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1844

October 7, 20156 counties in New Mexico; 6 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 7, 2015, 11:59 AM MDT for 6 counties in New Mexico; 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 7, 2015, 11:59 AM MDT (17:59 UTC)
Expired: Oct 7, 2015, 2:30 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Chaves County, NM, Doña Ana County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Culberson County, TX, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX

The radar

The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512Oct 7, 1:30 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 953 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 625 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 7, 1:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Doña Ana, Eddy, Otero, Sierra	6 hr
Oct 7, 4:40 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Doña Ana, Eddy, Lea, Otero, Roosevelt	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.