Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1244

June 30, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 30, 2015, 1:38 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 30, 2015, 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC)
Expired
Jun 30, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 96 counties

Charles County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Florence County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Amelia County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-06-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2015-06-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-189 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1604 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 30, 12:31 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford and 6 more2 hr
Jun 30, 12:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGarrett8 hr
Jun 30, 1:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick and 7 more7 hr
Jun 30, 2:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Calvert, Charles, Montgomery, Prince George's, Saint Mary's7 hr
Jun 30, 3:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDorchester6 hr
Jun 30, 3:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett, Washington117 min
Jun 30, 4:15 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 11 more2 hr
Jun 30, 7:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett67 min
Jun 30, 12:55 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 33 more3 hr
Jun 30, 1:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 24 more7 hr
Jun 30, 4:33 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba and 26 more117 min
Jun 30, 5:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Robeson3 hr
Jun 30, 7:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 21 more67 min
Jun 30, 7:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Chowan, Columbus and 27 more83 min
Jun 30, 1:01 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAbbeville, Aiken, Allendale, Anderson, Bamberg, Barnwell and 15 more89 min
Jun 30, 1:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAiken, Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Berkeley and 20 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.