Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 1221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 28, 2015, 3:21 PM CDT for 16 counties in Kansas; Barton County, Jasper County, Missouri. It was in force for 54 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 28, 2015, 3:21 PM CDT (20:21 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 28, 2015, 4:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 54 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Jasper County, MO
The radar
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1590 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 132 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 207 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
102
ACUS11 KWNS 282022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282021
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-282115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 282021Z - 282115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN KS...AND PERHAPS FAR NERN OK
AND INTO SWRN MO.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TCU CONGREGATED NEAR A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE VERY STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED CIN. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG MUCAPE PRESENT AND LCLS AROUND 700 MB.
ABOVE THIS WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS ALOFT INCREASE WITH
HEIGHT OUT OF THE NW. THIS SHOULD AID IN MOVING STORMS IN A SEWD
DIRECTION OVER TIME. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW PRODUCTION IS LIKELY...WITH
LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS. SMALL HAIL LADEN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ALSO ADD TO
WIND POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FOCUSED AREA AND MARGINAL
THREAT...A WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..JEWELL/HART.. 06/28/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36859522 36889651 37099724 37639769 37939738 37969612
38179529 38359501 38109452 37479415 37109417 36919439
36859522SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 5:16 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford, Elk and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 28, 1:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Clark, Cole and 23 more | 114 min |
| Jun 28, 3:03 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Clark, Cole, Crawford and 25 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 28, 3:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Knox, Lewis, Lincoln, Marion, Montgomery and 5 more | 115 min |
| Jun 28, 5:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Callaway, Clark, Cole, Crawford, Franklin and 18 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.