Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

April 17, 2015Nolan County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this special weather statement at Apr 17, 2015, 1:21 PM CDT for Nolan County, Texas. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 17, 2015, 1:21 PM CDT (18:21 UTC)
Expired: Apr 17, 2015, 2:00 PM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX

County Nolan County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 975 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 867 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -87 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.4
Supercell composite: -1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 17, 12:37 PM CDT, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 17, 12:37 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Poor flight conditions can be expected at all terminals through
20z. Radar trends and numerical guidance suggests these
thunderstorms should clear all TAF sites after that time, with
improving conditions expected. However, thunderstorms remain possible
through the evening at all locations. For now, we kept prevailing
thunder conditions for the first two hours of the forecast, and
will amend as needed based on observational trends. Brief wind
gusts to 30 kts, reductions in visibilities to around 3 miles, and
ceilings down to 1500 feet may occur as the thunderstorms move
through. Trends for this thus far have shown it to be too
spotty/short in duration to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Besides LIFR at KBBD and IFR at KJCT, severe thunderstorms are
possible after 18z/1PM at most TAF sites. The main impacts will be
large hail, damaging wind gusts, very heavy rain, and lightning.
An isolated tornado or two are possible. After 06Z tonight most of
the severe weather will have ended. IFR to LIFR conditions may be
possible again tonight especially at KBBD and KJCT terminals.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The main concern today is the threat for severe thunderstorms across
a large part of West Central Texas as a large potent upper low near
the Four Corners begins to move east today and tonight.

The dryline will interact with moisture already in place across the
region as dewpoints range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s,
moderate 0-6km shear, steep lapse rates, MU CAPE Values 1500-2500
J/KG, a weak capping inversion, an approaching short wave from far
West Texas, and an exit region of the subtropical jet flowing across
the NW Hill Country.  These parameters should set the stage for
scattered supercells today and continuing into the evening.  The
main threats will be large hail and damaging winds along with
isolated tornadoes.  SPC has placed much of the area in a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms today.  Have raised Pops and included
the mention of severe wording in the forecast.

If severe storms continue into the late evening and tonight periods,
Pops may need to be increased even higher.  High temperatures today
are forecast to reach 80, but cloud cover could hold temps down a
few degrees.  Cloud cover seems to be the only factor that might
help reduce the amount of heating and instability.  Models show
most of the QPF occurring between now and 00Z with some of it
lingering after 00z.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

The 4 corners upper low will be moving northeast into Colorado
Saturday with a trough extending down along the Texas/New Mexico
state line. This will push the dryline farther east along a
Sonora to San Angelo to Haskell line Saturday afternoon. Good
instability still exists, with GFS SB CAPES of 1000-1200 J/KG
along with 0-6 Bulk Shears of 40 KTS. So potential for severe
thunderstorms will continue. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook has much
of West Central Texas in a marginal potential for severe weather.
The dryline/surface trough will push east Saturday night, along
with moisture and instability. A cold front will move through
Sunday. While strong cold advection is initially limited Sunday,
cooler air will move in Monday, bringing highs back down into the
70s.

Both the EC and GFS models indicate return of moist air Monday night
into Thursday, as surface high pressure moves east. Dryline
thunderstorms possible midweek, but strong dynamics missing until
Thursday, as an upper trough over the western U.S. edges closer to
West Central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 80  59  83  55  79 /  60  40  20  20   5
San Angelo 	 81  58  85  54  82 /  60  40  20  20   5
Junction 	 79  59  81  56  85 /  70  40  40  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Aviation: Doll

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 17, 5:42 AM CDT, 7 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-181045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
542 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 17, 12:49 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HAIL             16 NW ALBANY            32.89N  99.49W
04/17/2015  E1.25 INCH       SHACKELFORD        TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500122

JD

Local storm report, Apr 17, 12:51 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     15 NW ALBANY            32.88N  99.48W
04/17/2015                   SHACKELFORD        TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500123

JD

Special weather statement, Apr 17, 12:56 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ099-171830-
THROCKMORTON TX-
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR
THROCKMORTON COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 1253 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
ELBERT...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELBERT BY 105 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3339 9895 3306 9894 3305 9947 3308 9947
      3340 9927 3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 258DEG 25KT 3329 9910

Local storm report, Apr 17, 1:09 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
109 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     HAIL             2 NE VIEW               32.36N  99.86W
04/17/2015  E1.75 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500124

19

Local storm report, Apr 17, 1:14 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
114 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     HAIL             6 WNW POTOSI            32.37N  99.77W
04/17/2015  E0.88 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500125

JD

Special weather statement, Apr 17, 1:21 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
121 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ049-054-113-127-171900-
FISHER TX-JONES TX-NOLAN TX-TAYLOR TX-
121 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
FISHER...JONES...NOLAN AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 121 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
CAMP BUTMAN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SWEETWATER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TRENT BY 155 PM CDT
  NOODLE BY 200 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 247 AND 262.

LAT...LON 3269 10025 3269 9999 3224 10008 3225 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 213DEG 17KT 3234 10019

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 16, 7:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Shackelford, Throckmorton	39 min
Apr 16, 7:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Jones, Taylor	49 min
Apr 16, 7:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Nolan	28 min
Apr 16, 7:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Haskell, Shackelford, Throckmorton	115 min
Apr 16, 7:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Fisher, Jones	49 min
Apr 17, 10:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Fisher, Jones	35 min
Apr 17, 10:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Schleicher	49 min
Apr 17, 10:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Fisher, Jones	40 min
Apr 17, 10:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Sutton	45 min
Apr 17, 10:45 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Haskell	30 min
Apr 17, 10:53 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Tom Green	52 min
Apr 17, 11:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Jones	58 min
Apr 17, 11:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Schleicher, Sutton	52 min
Apr 17, 11:18 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Concho, Crockett, Irion, Runnels, Schleicher, Sutton and 1 more	117 min
Apr 17, 11:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Haskell	24 min
Apr 17, 11:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Haskell	32 min
Apr 17, 11:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Tom Green	35 min
Apr 17, 11:50 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Haskell, Throckmorton	55 min
Apr 17, 12:01 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Tom Green	3 hr
Apr 17, 12:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Taylor	64 min
Apr 17, 12:12 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Coke, Runnels	93 min
Apr 17, 12:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Jones, Shackelford	62 min
Apr 17, 12:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Shackelford, Throckmorton	40 min
Apr 17, 12:46 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Schleicher, Sutton	119 min
Apr 17, 12:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Throckmorton	34 min
Apr 17, 12:59 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Taylor	2 hr
Apr 17, 1:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Jones, Taylor	41 min
Apr 17, 1:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Shackelford, Throckmorton	45 min
Apr 17, 1:36 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Jones, Shackelford, Throckmorton	114 min
Apr 17, 1:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Jones, Shackelford	33 min
Apr 17, 2:16 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Kimble, Mason	119 min
Apr 17, 2:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Haskell	24 min
Apr 17, 2:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Haskell	35 min
Apr 17, 3:07 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Taylor	53 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.