Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
644 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Besides LIFR at KBBD and IFR at KJCT, severe thunderstorms are
possible after 18z/1PM at most TAF sites. The main impacts will be
large hail, damaging wind gusts, very heavy rain, and lightning.
An isolated tornado or two are possible. After 06Z tonight most of
the severe weather will have ended. IFR to LIFR conditions may be
possible again tonight especially at KBBD and KJCT terminals.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The main concern today is the threat for severe thunderstorms across
a large part of West Central Texas as a large potent upper low near
the Four Corners begins to move east today and tonight.

The dryline will interact with moisture already in place across the
region as dewpoints range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s,
moderate 0-6km shear, steep lapse rates, MU CAPE Values 1500-2500
J/KG, a weak capping inversion, an approaching short wave from far
West Texas, and an exit region of the subtropical jet flowing across
the NW Hill Country.  These parameters should set the stage for
scattered supercells today and continuing into the evening.  The
main threats will be large hail and damaging winds along with
isolated tornadoes.  SPC has placed much of the area in a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms today.  Have raised Pops and included
the mention of severe wording in the forecast.

If severe storms continue into the late evening and tonight periods,
Pops may need to be increased even higher.  High temperatures today
are forecast to reach 80, but cloud cover could hold temps down a
few degrees.  Cloud cover seems to be the only factor that might
help reduce the amount of heating and instability.  Models show
most of the QPF occurring between now and 00Z with some of it
lingering after 00z.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

The 4 corners upper low will be moving northeast into Colorado
Saturday with a trough extending down along the Texas/New Mexico
state line. This will push the dryline farther east along a
Sonora to San Angelo to Haskell line Saturday afternoon. Good
instability still exists, with GFS SB CAPES of 1000-1200 J/KG
along with 0-6 Bulk Shears of 40 KTS. So potential for severe
thunderstorms will continue. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook has much
of West Central Texas in a marginal potential for severe weather.
The dryline/surface trough will push east Saturday night, along
with moisture and instability. A cold front will move through
Sunday. While strong cold advection is initially limited Sunday,
cooler air will move in Monday, bringing highs back down into the
70s.

Both the EC and GFS models indicate return of moist air Monday night
into Thursday, as surface high pressure moves east. Dryline
thunderstorms possible midweek, but strong dynamics missing until
Thursday, as an upper trough over the western U.S. edges closer to
West Central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 80  59  83  55  79 /  60  40  20  20   5
San Angelo 	 81  58  85  54  82 /  60  40  20  20   5
Junction 	 79  59  81  56  85 /  70  40  40  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-181045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
542 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1121 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ098-171645-
HASKELL TX-
1121 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR
HASKELL COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  HEAVY RAINFALL
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 1118 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
PAINT CREEK...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF HASKELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED IF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL VEHICLE HYDROPLANING...
  ACCUMULATION OF WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HASKELL BY 1125 AM CDT
  IRBY BY 1140 AM CDT
  WEINERT AND US-277 NEAR THE HASKELL-KNOX COUNTY LINE BY 1145 AM CDT

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
  LOOP ROAD CROSSING PAINT CREEK...
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 247...
  COUNTY ROAD 274 CROSSING BRUSHY CREEK...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF HASKELL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3340 9950 3296 9954 3296 9990 3296 10000
      3333 9999 3339 10000 3340 9999 3340 9978
      3341 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 212DEG 32KT 3309 9971