Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will move across West Texas this
evening. These thunderstorms will produce locally heavy
rainfall...strong gusty winds and large hail. Most of the
convection should shift east of the TAF sites by 05z. The extent
of low cloud development after midnight is somewhat uncertain,
given the expected mid/upper level cloud cover behind the forecast
convection. At this time, MVFR ceilings were included at all
sites, except KABI, beginning between 09z and 11z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

..Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible
overnight...

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms. An upper
level trough currently over the Desert Southwest will approach far
West Texas this evening, with large scale lift overspreading West
Central Texas. Showers and thunderstorms are developing across West
Texas and the South Plains this afternoon and should eventually grow
upscale into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) which is forecast
to move east across the area late this afternoon and evening. The
main concerns, especially through early this evening, are large
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible,
primarily along residual outflow boundaries. As we head into
mid/late evening, the threat should transition to more of a heavy
rain/wind threat as the MCS possibly becomes more of a bow echo.
The other concern will be very heavy rainfall which may result in
flash flooding. A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of
West Central Texas through 7 AM Friday. The MCS will track east
across the area this evening, with the majority of convection
moving east of the region during the early morning hours.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
mainly the eastern half of the area Friday morning. Highs on
Friday will be near to slightly below seasonal normals, generally
in the mid 80s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

As a strong shortwave trough moves east across the Plains on
Friday night, a cold front will sag south across the Lone Star
State. Modest synoptic scale forcing for ascent will overspread
the area Friday night into early Saturday, interacting with low-
level forcing associated with the aforementioned cold front to
produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across West Central
TX. Rainfall amounts could be locally heavy, especially
along/north of the Colorado River. Additional rainfall amounts
exceeding 1 inch will be possible on already saturated ground,
posing a flash flooding threat. Rainfall is expected to diminish
from north to south by Saturday afternoon/evening, as slightly
cooler and drier air advects into the CWA. Temperatures on
Saturday will be affected by ongoing precipitation, with highs
generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Cooler overnight lows are expected Saturday night, with
temperatures falling into the lower 60s. It's not out of the
question that some areas may dip into the 50s by sunrise,
depending on the extent of cloud cover. By Sunday, we'll be under
the influence of northerly flow aloft as a ridge builds over the
southwest CONUS. Low PoPs were maintained over the southern half
of the area on Sunday, although confidence is waning that we'll
see anything develop in a generally subsident environment with
little/no low-level forcing.

This ridge will be a player in the forecast going through at least
midweek. The medium range models are developing a cut-off upper-
level cyclone over east TX early in the week. The ECMWF keeps this
feature east of the Houston area, while the GFS slowly retrogrades
the low back to the west toward central TX. Either way, we should
remain on the subsident side of the cyclone with the mid-level
ridge remaining the dominant feature. This should result in
generally dry weather with temperatures creeping up toward 90
degrees. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 67  84  65  79  60 /  80  30  60  60  20
San Angelo 	 67  87  67  80  62 /  80  20  40  60  30
Junction 	 68  85  69  82  63 /  70  30  30  60  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
104 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-291100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
104 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO
VALLEY...AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH 8 PM.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL EPISODE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TODAY TO 7 AM
FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JOHNSON

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