Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo 	 65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction 	 66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
209 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-241915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
209 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A THROCKMORTON
TO JUNCTION LINE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
158 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ073-154-168-231930-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-CONCHO TX-
158 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
MCCULLOCH...MENARD AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 156 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MELVIN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MENARD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-87 AND RANCH ROAD 2134 BY 205 PM CDT
  MELVIN BY 210 PM CDT
  SALT GAP BY 220 PM CDT
  PEAR VALLEY...DOOLE AND LOHN BY 230 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3146 9972 3132 9928 3098 9961 3106 9980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 207DEG 28KT 3112 9965

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
221 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ168-169-231945-
KIMBLE TX-MENARD TX-
221 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR KIMBLE
AND MENARD COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 218 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CLEO...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF JUNCTION...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND RANCH ROAD 1773...US-83 NEAR THE
  KIMBLE-MENARD COUNTY LINE AND THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND HIGHWAY
  29 BY 245 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3066 10012 3068 10011 3104 9990 3067 9952
      3053 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 229DEG 26KT 3066 9997

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
321 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ073-154-168-232045-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-CONCHO TX-
321 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
MCCULLOCH...MENARD AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
HEAVY RAINFALL
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 318 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER THE
INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND RANCH ROAD 1773...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH
OF MENARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING! VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AND LOCALIZE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...MOTORISTS WILL ENCOUNTER PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  FIRE IGNITED BY LIGHTNING...
  LOCALIZED SHORT DURATION POWER OUTAGES...
  LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE INJURY OR DEATH TO PEOPLE REMAINING
  OUTDOORS...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL VEHICLE HYDROPLANING...
  ACCUMULATION OF WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS...
  SOME BROKEN SMALL TREE BRANCHES...
  DEADLY LIGHTNING...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  HAIL AND WIND MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINOR INJURY TO PLANTS AND
  MINOR DAMAGE TO EASILY BREAKABLE OBJECTS...

MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND HIGHWAY 29 BY 335 PM CDT
  MENARD BY 340 PM CDT
  US-190 NEAR THE MENARD-MCCULLOCH COUNTY LINE AND HEXT BY 345 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
  DECKER ST CROSSING SAN SABA RIVER...
  RANCH ROAD 2291 CROSSING LAS MORAS CREEK...
  MAHAN CROSSING TAYLOR BRANCH...
  CALLAN CROSSING...
  BLAU CROSSING...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF MCCULLOCH...MENARD
AND CONCHO COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3073 9988 3117 9980 3102 9936 3094 9943
      3094 9949 3088 9949 3071 9964 3071 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 204DEG 21KT 3078 9973