Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1154 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Line of strong to severe thunderstorms developing from Fort
Stockton to San Angelo to Abilene is expected to move slowly move
eastward tonight. Have thunder mentioned in all sites along with MVFR
ceilings. Visibilities may fall to IFR at times with heavy rainfall
and hail. Potential exist for large hail, especially through 9Z.
Heaviest rain/thunderstorms expected to move east of Sonora, San
Angelo and Abilene around 12Z, and 17Z for Brady and Junction. Cigs
return to VFR at KSJT and KABI around noon, and mid afternoon for
KBBD and KJCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated thunderstorms possible at KABI early this evening as a
dryline moves back west. Probability is too low to include in
TAF. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop
toward 9Z, affecting most TAF sites, and continuing through
Sunday morning. MVFR stratus will move up after midnight. MVFR
should rise to VFR around 18Z at KSJT and KSOA and mid afternoon
at KJCT and KBBD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

.Severe Thunderstorm Threat...

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the chance of strong
to severe thunderstorms. A Tornado Watch is currently in effect
generally north and east of a Haskell, to Ballinger, to Brownwood
line. A dryline is moving through West Central Texas and is forecast
to make it into our eastern counties by mid to late afternoon. Ahead
of the dryline, a moist and unstable atmosphere resides, with
towering cumulus already developing across parts of the Heartland
and Big Country. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this afternoon and gradually move east. SBCAPE values across these
locations are in the 3000-4000 J/KG range, with 0-6 KM bulk shear
values of 35 to 45, and steep lapse rates. Given these parameters,
any storms that do develop have the potential to become severe, with
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes being the main concerns.
Showers and thunderstorms may linger into early this evening, with
most convection moving east of the area by mid evening.

The aforementioned dryline is forecast to retreat west this evening.
As the dryline retreats west, a Pacific front will move across West
Texas. These two features will collide, somewhere across our western
counties, with showers and thunderstorms developing. In addition, a
100-115 knot jet streak will approach the Big Bend region, putting
much of the area in the favorable left front quadrant. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible, developing generally along a
line from Sweetwater, to Sterling City, to Ozona, mainly after
midnight. Movement of the individual cells will be northeast, with a
slow advancement of the complex east. Given the slow movement and
the possibility of locally heavy rainfall, some flooding will be
possible, especially across urban areas. A Flash Flood watch was
issued for mainly the northern Big Country. These locations have
seen an average of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall over the last few days,
with additional heavy rainfall possible this afternoon/evening, then
again Sunday morning. Farther south, although locally heavy rainfall
will be possible, opted to not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this
time given the lower rainfall amounts that have occurred over the
last few days. Showers and thunderstorms will shift east through the
day Monday, with the best PoPs across our eastern counties during
the afternoon.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

The long term forecast still remains essentially unchanged, with
showers and thunderstorms possible each period. First of all, the
next cold front still looks likely for passage on Monday. The
front will bring cooler air, along with gusty winds from the north
on Monday. Meanwhile, the first upper trough axis will finally
move northeast of Texas Sunday night. Then, models continue to
develop another trough aloft over the western United States,
during the first part of next week. This developing trough will,
as we've been indicating in previous discussions, help maintain
southwest flow aloft over Texas into next weekend. Short-wave
disturbances, in this southwest flow aloft, will enhance the
potential for showers and thunderstorms into the start of next
weekend.

Temperatures for the long term remain, for the most part,
unremarkable. The front will produce highs a category or two
cooler than seasonal normals through mid week. Otherwise, expect
highs closer to seasonal normals.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 63  80  60  74  57 /  60  50  20  10  20
San Angelo 	 62  81  60  78  59 /  70  60  20  20  40
Junction 	 69  80  64  79  61 /  40  70  40  60  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Haskell...Jones...Shackelford...Throckmorton.

&&

99/99/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
243 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-101945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
243 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND FLASH FLOODING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...FLASH FLOODING AND A
FEW TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST
OF A HASKELL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...DEADLY
LIGHTNING...AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
240 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ066-127-128-139-100815-
RUNNELS TX-TAYLOR TX-COLEMAN TX-CALLAHAN TX-
240 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 AM CDT FOR
RUNNELS...TAYLOR...COLEMAN AND CALLAHAN COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 239 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LAKE COLEMAN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLEMAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OPLIN AND US-283 NEAR THE COLEMAN-CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE BY 250 AM
  CDT
  ROWDEN BY 300 AM CDT
  ADMIRAL BY 310 AM CDT
  BAIRD AND PUTNAM BY 315 AM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 300 AND 314.

LAT...LON 3236 9984 3246 9912 3187 9941 3164 9972
      3187 9971 3182 9984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 209DEG 39KT 3203 9956

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