Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Fri May 8 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Thunderstorms may affect KABI this evening as a thunderstorm
outflow boundary sinks slowly southward. Otherwise MVFR stratus
will return this evening along the I-10 corridor and spread
north after midnight to KSJT and eventually KABI. Stratus should
rise to IFR late morning to early afternoon. Isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible Saturday but low confidence on
timing, so did not include in terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT Fri May 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

..Severe Thunderstorms...

The potential for severe thunderstorms highlights the forecast
for the next 24 hours. With southwest flow aloft over Texas and a
dryline to our west, severe thunderstorms are possible during the
next 24 hours. Most of our Counties are currently under Tornado
Watch number 145, which continues until midnight CDT tonight. In
addition, the 0 to 6 kilometer bulk shear this afternoon is in
the 40 to 60 knots range; plus, surface based CAPEs this afternoon
are around 4000 J/Kg. These conditions clearly have our attention.
With ongoing severe thunderstorms to our northwest, outflow
boundaries from that activity will be a big player, during the
evening hours, for supercell initiation over our counties.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

..Severe Weather Threat Into Sunday Night...

With the main focus on the short term, the long term forecast
remains essentially unchanged. The upper trough axis will finally
move over and east of our counties Sunday night. Until then, any
thunderstorms, which develop over or move into our counties, may
be severe. The timing of the next front looks more likely for early
to mid day Monday, rather than late Sunday night. Temperatures
after the front still look cooler, at least into mid week. Another
developing upper trough, along the west coast, will help maintain
southwest flow aloft over Texas for most of next week. Thus,
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for all long-term periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  84  63  80  60 /  30  50  50  50  30
San Angelo 	 69  88  63  81  60 /  30  30  70  50  40
Junction 	 70  83  68  81  64 /  30  40  70  70  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-092100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
354 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
A LINE FROM JUNCTION TO COLEMAN. THE MAIN THREATS THERE ARE
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT HAS
HIGH...EAST OF THIS LINE...A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...
TORNADOES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

HUBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
643 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TORNADO          1 NW THROCKMORTON       33.19N  99.19W
05/08/2015                   THROCKMORTON       TX   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND REPORTED BY SHERIFF OFFICE .

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500314

DOLL

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