Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
145 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0108 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

A frontal boundary moving through the Ozarks this morning will
bring strong to severe thunderstorms to the area. The forcingfrom
the boundary along with a short wave will take advantage of ample
instability with MUCAPE values in excess of 3000j/kg and steep
lapse rates. Damaging wind gust in excess of 60mph, large hail,
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and frequent cloud to
ground lightning will occur with the storms as they move slowly
across the region.

The slow movement of the boundary as it sags through the Ozarks
will make flooding a concern as storms will back build and train
over the same areas.

The boundary will make slow headway through this afternoon with
thunderstorms continuing into later this afternoon and this
evening. The boundary will have moved out of the region by
tonight though with showers and storms moving south and east of
the region.

Temperatures today will begin to see a downward trend with highs
for all but extreme southwestern Missouri only reaching around 90
this afternoon. Areas south and west of a Joplin to Cassville line
may see temps in the lower 90s before the boundary shifts south of
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0108 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

The upper levle pattern will become more northwesterly Tuesday and
continuing through the remainder of the week. This, along with
cooler high pressure will bring a needed cooling trend for the
week with highs in the 80s and overnight lows falling into the
lower to middle 60s.

The upper level pattern will begin to flatten out and allow
temperatures to climb to around 90 degrees for high over the
coming weekend.

Overall, dry weather is expected through this week and the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

Pilots can expect generally VFR conditions at area terminals
tonight into Monday. A front will drop southward overnight into
Monday morning bringing a chance of showers and storms. Intervals
of MVFR conditions may occur in the showers. A clearing sky and
wind shift to the northwest by Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
209 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
  INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
  STORMS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST
  RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
  AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

  ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A COLD FRONT
  MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

KSZ073-100700-
BOURBON KS-
116 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL 200
AM CDT...

AT 116 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
UNIONTOWN...OR 14 MILES WEST OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
FORT SCOTT...                     MARMATON...
UNIONTOWN...                      REDFIELD...
HIATTVILLE...                     PETERSBURG...
GARLAND...                        PAWNEE STATION...
PORTERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 9508 3790 9462 3767 9462 3768 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 270DEG 16KT 3778 9496

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

KSZ073-097-MOZ066-077>080-089-100800-
CRAWFORD KS-BOURBON KS-DADE MO-POLK MO-BARTON MO-DALLAS MO-VERNON MO-
CEDAR MO-
209 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN
BOURBON...SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS...DADE...CEDAR...SOUTHERN VERNON...POLK
AND BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 209 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAIR PLAY TO NEAR
ARMA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
PITTSBURG...                      BOLIVAR...
STOCKTON LAKE...                  STOCKTON STATE PARK...
PRAIRIE STATE PARK...             LAMAR...
FRONTENAC...                      GIRARD...
STOCKTON...                       ARMA...
GREENFIELD...                     LOCKWOOD...
GOLDEN CITY...                    LIBERAL...
CHEROKEE...                       PLEASANT HOPE...
SHELDON...                        MULBERRY...
FAIR PLAY...                      CHICOPEE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 9361 3775 9339 3744 9307 3742 9308
      3743 9361 3735 9408 3736 9461 3734 9462
      3734 9486 3775 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 290DEG 28KT 3768 9355 3763 9473

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
213 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MOZ082-083-100800-
DENT MO-TEXAS MO-
213 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DENT AND NORTHERN
TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 213 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF FORT
LEONARD WOOD TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LICKING...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
MONTAUK STATE PARK...             LICKING...
HAZELTON...                       PRESCOTT...
JADWIN...                         ROBY...
MONTAUK...                        SUCCESS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 9215 3742 9144 3760 9176 3760 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 295DEG 24KT 3756 9221 3757 9178

GAGAN