Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Springfield, MO

353 
WWUS53 KSGF 100617
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
117 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MOC161-100645-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-150810T0645Z/
PHELPS MO-
117 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY...

AT 117 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. JAMES...OR
NEAR ROLLA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLA...                          ST. JAMES...
DOOLITTLE...                      NEWBURG...
NORTHWYE...                       

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 195.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 9153 3790 9192 3804 9188 3800 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 292DEG 14KT 3794 9167 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GAGAN

190 
WWUS53 KSGF 100641
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MOC161-100651-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-150810T0645Z/
PHELPS MO-
141 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 145 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL
HAIL....GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3779 9153 3790 9192 3804 9188 3800 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 292DEG 14KT 3794 9167 

$$

GAGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

Will be monitoring for thunderstorm development and the potential
for heavy rainfall overnight. The evolution of convective
development remains uncertain as we head into the overnight hours.

Convective complex continues to regenerate across east central
Missouri and back built to the west into the eastern Ozarks.

Meanwhile a shortwave and associated front will be dropping southeastward
into the region. The lower atmosphere remains moderately unstable
with most unstable CAPE near 3500 J/KG while 925-850 MB analysis
does show some increase in convergence. Airmass is extremely moist
with precipitable water values near 2 inches.

Expect at least some development of convection overnight but the
details remain murky at this point. While there is the potential
for heavy rainfall and even localized flooding this prospect
remains conditional.

Closely monitor for updates overnight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0238 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

Hot conditions today with heat index values in the upper 90s to
around 108, temperatures from the upper 80s to mid 90s and dew
points in the low to mid 70s. Some showers were beginning to move
into northwest portion of CWA with a boundary extending from
southwest corner of MO into the Lake of the Ozarks region. Pretty
unstable with surface based CAPES between 4000-5500 j/kg, but
suspect we are fairly capped given the lack of any cu field. Will
be sending up a special 20z sounding here shortly to assess the
thermodynamics.

Focus in the short term will be with convective precipitation
chances through Monday as upper level wave and surface front push
through. Remainder of week we will focus on temperatures as upper
level pattern shifts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0238 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

Will maintain the heat advisory for the onset of the forecast as
temperatures/heat index values area above or approaching heat
advisory criteria and forecast will go out at the hottest part of
the day. Current advisory will expire at 10 pm, but can probably
be cancelled prior to that ending time.

Should see the coverage of convection increase this evening and
overnight as front and upper level energy move into the area and
interact with unstable air mass. 0-6km bulk shear values not
overly impressive, but have higher values up to around 30kts in
central MO. 0-3km theta-e difference would indicate potential for
downburst winds if decent updrafts can get going this
afternoon/evening. Will maintain elevated potential of severe
storms, mainly for damaging wind for late afternoon and evening.
Convection should clear the area during the day Monday with the
surface front pushing through the area. Upper ridge will
retrograde westward with a northwest to southeast or north to
south upper level flow setting up.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0238 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

Cooler and drier air mass should work into the area and keep
precipitation out of the forecast for the remainder of the week
into next weekend. Will start to see moderating temperatures
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

Pilots can expect generally VFR conditions at area terminals
tonight into Monday. A front will drop southward overnight into
Monday morning bringing a chance of showers and storms. Intervals
of MVFR conditions may occur in the showers. A clearing sky and
wind shift to the northwest by Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1214 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110515-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1214 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
  AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
  BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF NICKELS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
  AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WOULD RESULT IN
  A LIMITED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A COLD FRONT
  MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N VIENNA              38.26N 91.95W
08/09/2015                   MARIES             MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NORTH OF
            VIENNA...RELAYED BY MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

RFRYE