Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

Low level jet of 35-45 kts at 850 mb was occurring across the area
with a warm front set up across central MO. A few storms have
developed as a result in central MO north of the area and in south
central MO into Arkansas. Convection was mainly developing on
eastern and northern edge of an elevated mixed layer which was
present over much of the CWA.

Temperatures remain very mild overnight with readings still in the
60s and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Forecast will be focusing in on thunderstorm chances/severity
through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

For today, will continue the risk of thunderstorms mainly over the
eastern Ozarks and in our central MO counties through the rest of
the overnight and early Tuesday morning, but should see low level
jet weaken and the elevated mixed layer strengthen by mid morning
and not expecting much convection the rest of the day. Will need
to watch just to our northwest by later this afternoon near the
triple point across eastern KS for thunderstorm development should
the cap break. If this occurs, there would be a risk of large hail
and damaging winds with storms that could develop. This would
mainly be a risk over our southeast Kansas into west central MO
counties from late afternoon into the evening hours.

Highs today should reach the mid 70s to low 80s which is quite a
bit above normal for this time of year. This combined with surface
dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s should yield CAPES in the
2000-3000 j/kg range. The question will be if the CAP can break.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

Another warm day is in store for the area on Wednesday with the
warm front shifting northward. Main severe weather risk will be
later in the day as upper level energy will help to erode a CAP
with storms developing to our west and pushing into our CWA by
late afternoon into the evening. The main cold front will
eventually shift east into the area during the day Thursday as a
negatively tilted upper level wave shifts east northeast from the
Plains into the upper and mid Mississippi valley regions. Severe
storms will be possible as this front moves through with the best
chance of severe weather expected across our eastern CWA due to
the timinig of the surface front. Supercells may be possible as
storms initiate which would bring about the risk of all modes of
severe weather. Convection should pass through the area by 06z Fri
with high pressure building in for the day Friday.

The high should quickly push to the east of the area and we will
move back into a good Gulf moisture feed on Saturday with
thunderstorm chances returning by late Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015

Ceilings vary greatly this evening though anticipate MVFR
conditions to soon prevail giving way to IFR as low levels cool
and southerly winds advect moisture into the region. Ceilings will
show little improvement through midday Tuesday...with mixing
leading to VFR conditions in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Runnels

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
422 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
422 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
  MORNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.
  LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
  WEATHER RISK.

  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
  AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND
  GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
  THAT DEVELOP.

  SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH
  THURSDAY AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES.

  THE SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A
  LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
  EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
  CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

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