Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Springfield, MO

887 
WWUS53 KSGF 030548
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

MOC067-030558-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-150403T0600Z/
DOUGLAS MO-
1248 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3686 9264 3699 9256 3706 9256 3705 9209
      3680 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 275DEG 35KT 3702 9202 3693 9201
          3688 9207

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015

...A Severe Storm Risk Continues into the Overnight Hours...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

A stalled surface front remains in place roughly along the I-44
corridor across central and southwestern Missouri late this
evening. Scattered elevated storms continue to track east north of
this boundary across western and central Missouri. Instability and
shear is weaker across these areas north of the boundary and the
overall severe risk with these storms is low. Small hail up to the
size of pennies and cloud to ground lightning will be the main
risk with these storms and should see coverage decrease with this
activity as we head into the overnight hours.

South of the surface boundary along and south of I-44 storms
continue to develop and spread east across southern Missouri late
this evening and this trend will continue into the overnight
hours as the low level jet increases. MLCIN is increasing across
southern Missouri as we head into the overnight hours, and the
main risk with any supercells storms will be large hail to the
size of half dollars as these supercells will likely be elevated
due to the increased low level cap. The best potential for
supercells tonight will be across far southern MO. Low level shear
is increase across southern MO with the increase in the low level
jet, so if these supercells can remain surface based there would
be tornado risk, but again this risk should be decreasing with the
increase in low level cin.

These storms south of the surface boundary are showing signs of
developing into line segments late this evening and this risk will
continue into the overnight hours across southern Missouri. There
will be a risk for winds to 60 mph with any ling segments. There
will also be a tornado risk with any line segments that can surge
or bow out to the east late this evening into the overnight hours.
This activity will spread east across southern Missouri into late
tonight.

Next area to concern will be with the cold front and upper level
disturbance pushing across central Kansas late this evening. These
features will continue to track to the southeast and will push
into and through the area late tonight into Friday morning. A line
of storms have developed along these features across central
Kansas late this evening and south continue to start to push
southeast along the cold front overnight. There will be a wind
risk with this line of storms. The 0-3km bulk shear vectors will
continue to increase overnight to the due east close to 50kt.
There will be a mesovortices and tornado risk with the line as it
will be pushing to the southeast again late tonight into Friday
morning. The cold front and thunderstorms will push east of the
area by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

An active night is expected across the area tonight as a
springtime storm system takes aim on the Ozarks. A synoptic
frontal boundary currently extends from just north of St. Louis
through central Missouri and back into southeastern Kansas and
then north-central Oklahoma (where surface low pressure was
located). This front has wavered back and forth today but has
generally not moved all that much. The mid and upper level flow
this afternoon is rather flat in a west-southwesterly fashion. A
short wave trough and speed max was emerging across the central
High Plains.

As we get into late this afternoon and tonight, we will be watching
that front closely for surface-based convective initiation. Short
range high resolution models have struggled with initiation time
and convective mode late this afternoon and this evening. This is
likely due in part to the presence of an elevated mixed layer
(EML) and capping inversion. Surface temperatures have warmed into
the lower 80s across northeastern Oklahoma with surface dew points
in the lower 60s. Despite the heating, it will likely take
increasing large scale ascent starting early this evening to get
convective initiation going in earnest. We still may very well see
some widely scattered cells try and get going across central
Missouri where the cap is weaker.

Deep layer shear and MLCAPE values in the 1200-1800 J/kg range will
initially be supportive of supercells...especially across
southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma where Bunkers right-
moving vectors will have a stronger cross-component to the surface
boundary. Any supercells will then tend to move east into southern
Missouri this evening. Given the presence of steeper mid-level
lapse rates and increasing deep layer shear with an approaching
speed max, we will be increasing our maximum potential hail size
to tennis balls. We will also be increasing the tornado threat to
elevated across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and
southern Missouri as short term models have increased low level
helicities into the overnight period. This is due to a rather
veered low level jet and the potential for some localized backing
of winds due to terrain effects across southern Missouri.
Additionally, storms that develop along the front across the
Missouri Ozarks may also have a tendency to track along this
feature and ingest low level vorticity.

As we head into later this evening and the overnight period, we
may then get into more of a mixed convective mode situation as
convective coverage increases and cold pools conglomerate. For any
line segments that develop, the setup will be favorable for
damaging straight-line winds. Mesovortex and attendant tornado
potential will also be present for any line segments that bow to
the east and northeast. The bottom line here is that severe storms
will remain possible for much of tonight as most of the Missouri
Ozarks will remain in the warm sector of this storm system.

In addition to the threat for severe storms, we will also be
closely monitoring the hydro situation. With little in the way of
movement expected to that front, training convection will be
likely as that low level jet strengthens overnight. The Flood
Watch is well placed and has been left intact.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

Ongoing convective complex to start the day Friday will quickly
exit to the east and southeast. Some signals for lingering light
showers behind the front given low level isentropic upglide.
Biggest change will be to temperatures as they will drop sharply
behind the front on the heels of gusty north winds. Temperatures
in the 40s/50s are expected with wind chill values in the 40s much
of the day.

Attention then turns to frost/freeze potential Friday night.
Surface high pressure will slide overhead Friday night. A clear
sky, light winds and moist grounds from recent rains will provide
a good opportunity for frost. Will let the night shift decide on
the need for any headlines given impending severe/heavy rain risk.

Quiet weather will continue on Saturday with temperatures
returning to near average under a mainly sunny sky. This will be a
brief reprieve from our increasingly active weather regime. Long
wave charts place the area in southwest flow from Sunday through
much of next week. This will set the stage for several
opportunities for showers and storms. The first potential will be
late Sunday/Sunday night, though the bulk of the rainfall looks
like it will stay mainly to our south.

Periodic rain chances and above average temperatures are expected
much of next week, though timing individual waves (as always) will
prove difficult. As a result, the forecast is a bit more
pessimistic than preferred, but it should be noted there will some
dry time next week. Current multimodel ensemble forecast indicates
the best rain chances coming in the Wednesday to Thursday time
frame as a cold front moves through the region. This pattern is
supportive for a strong/severe storm risk, and such details will
become clearer with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Expect thunderstorms to increase in
coverage over the next few hours with mvfr/ifr conditions at times.
A strong cold front will move through the region toward 12z-15z
with strong north winds and lowering ceilings with much cooler low
levels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040430-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1128 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS STATE LINE FROM THE PINEVILLE AREA
EAST TO THE GAINESVILLE AREA WHERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ...AND TORNADOES.

OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH ONE INCH HAIL POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY 3 TO 4 AM REACHING
THE SPRINGFIELD AREA BY 6 AM.

ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS AND A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS
STATE LINE AND THEN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
846 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             CARL JUNCTION           37.18N 94.57W
04/02/2015  E1.50 INCH       JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             GOLDEN CITY             37.39N 94.09W
04/02/2015  E1.50 INCH       BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     HAIL             10 W COLUMBUS           37.17N 95.03W
04/02/2015  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WEBB CITY               37.15N 94.48W
04/02/2015                   JASPER             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 S CARTHAGE            37.16N 94.31W
04/02/2015                   JASPER             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
955 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             5 E GALENA              37.07N 94.55W
04/02/2015  E0.88 INCH       JASPER             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

RFRYE