Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...Slight risk for Severe Weather through this Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 0250 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

Complex weather event continues to unfold this afternoon as a
strong storm system moves from the Plains toward the Great Lakes
region. Line of deep convection with embedded bowing segments had
organized from northeastern Oklahoma into west central Missouri.

A dryline/prefrontal trough was positioned across eastern
Kansas and Oklahoma with a mid level speed max spreading east
toward the area. Synoptic scale lift will increase into the
evening as a vigorous shortwave and vorticity maximum swings
northeast from the southern Plains.

The initial line of convection will push gradually eastward while
individual cells race to the northeast. We will have to closely
monitor an enhanced area of thunderstorms that will likely push
northeast from eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri late this
afternoon and early this evening. Given the orientation of this
activity there could be an enhanced risk for locally damaging
winds.

Will also have to monitor for new convective development along
the front as it pushes into the area this evening. This will occur
mainly from southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri.

The storms may accelerate eastward later this evening as the
upper trough swings eastward and the surface front pushes east.

Available instability will remain on the modest side but low
level and deep layer shear will remain strong if not increase.
Most Unstable CAPE values of 700 to 1200 J/kg over the along and
west of I-49, tapering to 300-700 J/kg for the rest of the area is
expected at this point.

Convective mode will primarily be linear with embedded bowing line
segments. Will have to monitor for some embedded supercell
structures are plausible into far southwestern Missouri. With a
southwest to northeast oriented synoptic front, any line segment
surges to the east/northeast will be favorable for mesovortex
development and localized wind damage. The potential for a
isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the extent of
shear and at least modest low level CAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and Tonight)
Issued at 0250 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will spread east across the
Missouri Ozarks we head through the evening. Most activity will be
east of Highway 65 by midnight an end across the eastern Ozarks
during the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 0220 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

A slightly cooler air mass will spread into the area on Friday
behind the cold front currently pushing across the region. Highs
Friday will warm into the lower to middle 60s which are right at
normal for early November.

The main upper level trough will remain north of the area on
Friday but will slide south into the region Saturday into Sunday.
As the trough moves through the region surface high pressure and a
colder air mass will settle over the area. Highs on Saturday and
Sunday will drop into the 50s both afternoons. Lows Friday night
will drop into the upper 30s with lows on both Saturday and Sunday
nights falling to around the freezing mark. A hard freeze will be
possible both nights.

Short wave upper level ridging will then build over the central
U.S. early next week bringing back seasonable conditions as highs
warm into the 60s during the afternoon hours.

Another upper level system will approach the region during the
middle of next week, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the area. The medium range models all show a
signal for chances for rain next week, but they do differ on the
exact track, timing, and strength of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015

Unsettled weather through this evening with a few rounds of
showers and storms expected. So far, most restrictions have been
of the MVFR variety, with on again/off again bouts of IFR at
SGF/BBG. With the first round of rain exiting, mainly MVFR
ceilings are expected this afternoon. However, restrictions will
once again lower to IFR late this afternoon and this evening as
the next round of showers and storms move through the area. This
system will be progressive, as a result, clearing from west to
east is expected from late this evening into the overnight hours,
with winds shifting from southerly to northerly. Friday will
feature a north wind and a few diurnal cumulus.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Foster/Previous Fcter
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE HALLOWELL         37.20N 94.98W
11/05/2015  M57 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MEASURED 57MPH WIND GUST

&&

BURCHFIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

MOZ055-067-068-078-052115-
HICKORY MO-BENTON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CEDAR MO-
233 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CEDAR...ST. CLAIR...
NORTHWESTERN HICKORY AND WESTERN BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...

AT 232 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF SCHELL
CITY TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL DORADO SPRINGS TO 11 MILES EAST OF
SHELDON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
TRUMAN STATE PARK...              TRUMAN LAKE...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...              WARSAW...
LINCOLN...                        COLE CAMP...
OSCEOLA...                        LOWRY CITY...
WEAUBLEAU...                      WHEATLAND...
COLLINS...                        ROSCOE...
VISTA...                          GERSTER...
FILLEY...                         FRISTOE...
CEDAR SPRINGS...                  PALO PINTO...
RACKET...                         MONEGAW SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR TRUMAN LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3846 9320 3807 9322 3795 9335 3767 9407
      3808 9397 3821 9379 3820 9356 3822 9356
      3821 9353 3842 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 238DEG 45KT 3805 9392 3779 9397 3771 9409

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

MOZ077-078-089-052130-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-
251 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DADE...CEDAR AND EASTERN
BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CST...

AT 250 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SHELDON TO NEAR LAMAR
TO 8 MILES NORTH OF PURCELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
STOCKTON LAKE...                  STOCKTON STATE PARK...
LAMAR...                          STOCKTON...
GOLDEN CITY...                    JERICO SPRINGS...
LAMAR HEIGHTS...                  IRWIN...
ARCOLA...                         UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS...
MILFORD...                        KENOMA...
MASTERS...                        BOSTON...
WAGONER...                        BEARCREEK...
ARNICA...                         BONA...
CANE HILL...                      NEOLA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3760 9433 3765 9420 3764 9408 3769 9407
      3783 9368 3783 9363 3751 9367 3735 9413
      3736 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 231DEG 54KT 3762 9427 3744 9433 3736 9448

HATCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
423 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

MOZ093-101-052315-
NEWTON MO-MCDONALD MO-
423 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEWTON AND MCDONALD
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CST...

AT 423 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTH WEST CITY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF JAY...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
NEOSHO...                         BIG SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK...
ANDERSON...                       NOEL...
DODGE...                          GOODMAN...
SOUTH WEST CITY...                PINEVILLE...
LANAGAN...                        STELLA...
CAYUGA...                         TIFF CITY...
POWELL...                         ROCKY COMFORT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3668 9462 3688 9433 3675 9407
      3650 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 248DEG 28KT 3650 9465

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
427 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

MOZ068-069-052315-
HICKORY MO-CAMDEN MO-
427 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HICKORY AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CST...

AT 426 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF URBANA...OR 8 MILES EAST OF HERMITAGE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS...             HA HA TONKA STATE PARK...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK...  OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...                      VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS...
LAKE OZARK...                     LAURIE...
SUNRISE BEACH...                  MACKS CREEK...
LINN CREEK...                     CLIMAX SPRINGS...
GREEN BAY TERRACE...              BRANCH...
PURVIS...                         BARNUMTON...
ROACH...                          HURRICANE DECK...
DECATURVILLE...                   OLD LINN CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3821 9264 3817 9264 3817 9262 3807 9257
      3790 9266 3791 9318 3806 9320 3806 9307
      3815 9306 3820 9286 3819 9277 3822 9276
      3823 9271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 255DEG 30KT 3797 9316

HATCH