Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2015
River Flood Warning 56, NWS Springfield, MO
NWS Springfield, MO issued this river flood warning at Jul 1, 2015, 9:18 AM CDT for Pulaski County, Missouri. It took effect at Jul 1, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 52 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 1, 2015, 9:18 AM CDT (14:18 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 1, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Jul 4, 2015, 12:12 AM CDT
- In force
- 52 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Springfield, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Pulaski County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Big Piney at Ft. Wood - East Gate (BIGM7).
- Action stage
- 6 ft
- Minor stage
- 8 ft
- Moderate stage
- 15 ft
- Major stage
- 23 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06930060, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
164
WGUS43 KSGF 011418
FLWSGF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
918 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
...The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Missouri...
Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski
County.
Gasconade River at Jerome affecting Phelps County.
.This warning is based on future forecast precipitation amounts of
2.50 to 3.50 inches during the next 24 hours near the river basins.
If conditions warrant...additional rises or falls may occur based on
future precipitation and runoff. Due to rainfall amounts from last night of
approximately 1 to 3 inches and future rainfall will cause the rivers to
rise.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Those with property and livestock along the river should continue to
monitor river conditions.Additional river information can be found on
our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page at
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/ index.php?wfo=sgf
&&
MOC169-020218-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FL.W.0056.150702T0100Z-150704T0512Z/
/BIGM7.1.ER.150702T0100Z.150703T0000Z.150703T2312Z.NO/
918 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
* From this evening...until further notice.
...For the Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate...
* At 8:00 AM Wednesday The stage was 3.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by this evening
and continue to rise to near 13.5 feet by tomorrow evening. The
river will fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site.
Water at the lower TA 250 Training Ground is two feet deep.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Thu Fri Sat
Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wo 8 3.8 Wed 08 AM 11.8 11.1 5.9
&&
LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211
$$
MOC161-020218-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FL.W.0057.150702T1212Z-150706T0640Z/
/JRMM7.1.ER.150702T1212Z.150703T0000Z.150705T0640Z.UU/
918 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
* From Thursday morning...until further notice.
...For the Gasconade River at Jerome...
* At 8:45 AM Wednesday The stage was 4.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow
morning and continue to rise to near 19.2 feet by tomorrow evening.
The river will fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Flood waters begin to overflow the left bank
at the gage site.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Thu Fri Sat
Gasconade River Basin
Jerome 15 4.0 Wed 09 AM 14.9 18.4 17.9
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9199 3800 9195 3790 9196 3792 9202
$$6 follow-up statements
440
WGUS83 KSGF 012122
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
422 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski
County...
Gasconade River at Jerome affecting Phelps County...
.Heavy rainfall over the Gasconade and Big Piney river basins
will cause river levels to rise above flood stage. Details and
forecasts for each location are included below.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.
Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=sgf
&&
MOC169-021222-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0056.150702T0402Z-150704T0512Z/
/BIGM7.1.ER.150702T0402Z.150703T0000Z.150703T2312Z.NO/
422 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
...For the Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate...
* At 4:00 PM Wednesday The stage was 5.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise
to near 13.5 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below
flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site.
Water at the lower TA 250 Training Ground is two feet deep.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Thu Fri Sat
Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wo 8 5.1 Wed 04 PM 11.8 11.1 5.9
&&
LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211
$$
MOC161-021222-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0057.150702T1212Z-150706T0640Z/
/JRMM7.1.ER.150702T1212Z.150703T0000Z.150705T0640Z.UU/
422 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
...For the The Gasconade River at Jerome...
* At 3:45 PM Wednesday The stage was 5.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue
to rise to near 19.2 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall
below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Flood waters begin to overflow the left bank
at the gage site.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Thu Fri Sat
Gasconade River Basin
Jerome 15 5.8 Wed 04 PM 14.9 18.4 17.9
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9199 3800 9195 3790 9196 3792 9202
$$219
WGUS83 KSGF 020213
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
913 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski
County
Gasconade River at Jerome affecting Phelps County
.Heavy rainfall that is forecast to occur overnight will cause river levels to
rise above flood stage.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.
Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=sgf
&&
MOC169-021713-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0056.150702T1500Z-150703T2018Z/
/BIGM7.1.ER.150702T1500Z.150703T0000Z.150703T1418Z.NO/
913 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
...For the Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate...
* At 8:00 PM Wednesday The stage was 5.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and
continue to rise to near 9.6 feet by tomorrow evening. The river
will fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...The Happy Hollow Picnic Area floods.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Thu Fri Sat
Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wo 8 5.1 Wed 08 PM 8.5 4.9 3.6
&&
LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211
$$
MOC161-021713-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0057.150703T0600Z-150705T0600Z/
/JRMM7.1.ER.150703T0600Z.150703T0600Z.150704T0600Z.UU/
913 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
...For the Gasconade River at Jerome...
* At 8:45 PM Wednesday The stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early
Friday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding begins near the gage site.
Flood waters reach the lower edge of the concrete building where
the gage equipment is located.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Thu Fri Sat
Gasconade River Basin
Jerome 15 7.4 Wed 09 PM 14.7 14.7 10.2
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9199 3800 9195 3790 9196 3792 9202
$$462
WGUS83 KSGF 020921
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
421 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski
County
Gasconade River at Jerome affecting Phelps County
.Heavy rainfall over the past 2 days will cause river levels to rise above flood
stage.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.
Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=sgf
&&
MOC169-030021-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0056.150702T0959Z-150704T0723Z/
/BIGM7.1.ER.150702T0959Z.150703T0000Z.150704T0123Z.NO/
421 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate...
* At 4:00 AM Thursday The stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early this morning and
continue to rise to near 14.2 feet by this evening. The river will
fall below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site.
Water at the lower TA 250 Training Ground is two feet deep.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wo 8 6.8 Thu 04 AM 11.9 6.1 4.5
&&
LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211
$$
MOC161-030021-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0057.150702T1950Z-150706T1650Z/
/JRMM7.1.ER.150702T1950Z.150705T0000Z.150705T1650Z.UU/
421 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the Gasconade River at Jerome...
* At 3:45 AM Thursday The stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
rise to near 20.5 feet by Saturday evening. The river will fall
below flood stage by late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 20.5 feet...Flood waters begin to impact the steel
residential fence line at the gage site.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Gasconade River Basin
Jerome 15 10.3 Thu 04 AM 18.5 19.3 17.5
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9199 3800 9195 3790 9196 3792 9202
$$239
WGUS83 KSGF 021439
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
939 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski
County
Gasconade River at Jerome affecting Phelps County
.Heavy rainfall over the past two days will cause river levels to rise above
flood stage.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.
Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=sgf
&&
MOC169-030539-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-150703T0900Z/
/BIGM7.1.ER.150702T2217Z.150703T0000Z.150703T0300Z.NO/
939 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate...
* At 9:00 AM Thursday The stage was 7.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and
continue to rise to near 8.2 feet by this evening. The river will
fall below flood stage by tonight.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...The Pontoon Training Area at Ft. Wood Floods.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wo 8 7.5 Thu 09 AM 7.2 5.2 4.2
&&
LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211
$$
MOC161-030539-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0057.150704T0520Z-150706T0723Z/
/JRMM7.1.ER.150704T0520Z.150704T1800Z.150705T0723Z.UU/
939 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the Gasconade River at Jerome...
* At 9:15 AM Thursday The stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...crest near 14.7 feet Friday morning and then a second crest of 16.3
feet on Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding begins near the gage site.
Flood waters reach the lower edge of the concrete building where
the gage equipment is located.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Gasconade River Basin
Jerome 15 12.3 Thu 09 AM 14.7 15.9 14.0
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9199 3800 9195 3790 9196 3792 9202
$$907
WGUS83 KSGF 021841
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Osage River near Schell City affecting Bates and Vernon Counties
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski
County
James River at Galena affecting Stone County
Gasconade River at Jerome affecting Phelps County
Little Osage River near Horton affecting Vernon County
.Heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours combined with potential
additional rainfall expected over the next 24 hours will cause river
levels to rise above or remain flood stage.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.
Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=sgf
&&
MOC169-030900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-150703T0900Z/
/BIGM7.1.ER.150702T1900Z.150703T0000Z.150703T0300Z.NO/
141 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the The Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate...
* At 1:00 PM Thursday The stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
rise to near 8.2 feet by this evening. The river will fall below
flood stage by tonight.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...The Pontoon Training Area at Ft. Wood Floods.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wo 8 8.0 Thu 01 PM 7.2 5.2 4.2
&&
LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211
$$
MOC209-030941-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0061.150703T0300Z-150704T2000Z/
/GLNM7.1.ER.150703T0300Z.150703T1200Z.150703T2000Z.NO/
141 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the The James River at Galena...
* At 1:15 PM Thursday The stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise
to near 17.0 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below
flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet...Flood waters reach the second window level
of the restrooms at the James River Outfitter Canoe Park area.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
James River Basin
Galena 15 11.6 Thu 01 PM 17.0 8.6 5.8
&&
LAT...LON 3677 9348 3678 9354 3688 9347 3687 9340
$$
MOC161-030941-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0057.150704T0520Z-150706T0723Z/
/JRMM7.1.ER.150704T0520Z.150704T1800Z.150705T0723Z.UU/
141 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the The Gasconade River at Jerome...
* At 12:45 PM Thursday The stage was 13.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding begins near the gage site.
Flood waters reach the lower edge of the concrete building where
the gage equipment is located.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Gasconade River Basin
Jerome 15 13.0 Thu 01 PM 14.7 15.9 14.0
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9199 3800 9195 3790 9196 3792 9202
$$
MOC217-030941-
/O.CON.KSGF.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-150705T1612Z/
/HTNM7.1.ER.150702T1450Z.150703T1200Z.150704T1612Z.NO/
141 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the The Little Osage River near Horton...
* At 12:45 PM Thursday The stage was 41.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 41.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 43.4 feet by
tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage late
Saturday morning.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Little Osage River Basin
Horton 41 41.7 Thu 01 PM 43.4 41.7 34.0
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9454 3801 9437 3795 9437 3794 9455
$$
MOC013-217-030941-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0060.150704T0600Z-150706T0000Z/
/SCZM7.1.ER.150704T0600Z.150704T0600Z.150705T0000Z.NO/
141 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...For the Osage River near Schell City...
* At 12:45 PM Thursday The stage was 27.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early
Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Flood waters affect the Schell Osage
Conservation Area, the Old River Road North of Schell City and Lost
Creek west of Schell Lake. Flood waters overflow the main river
channel at the gage site.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Osage River Basin
Schell City 30 27.9 Thu 01 PM 29.3 30.0 29.5
&&
LAT...LON 3803 9416 3799 9406 3806 9406 3807 9415
$$547
WGUS83 KSGF 022212
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Big Piney below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski
County
.Heavy rainfall that caused the river to flood has ended and the river is
receding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.
Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=sgf
&&
MOC169-022242-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-150703T0900Z/
/BIGM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
512 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
The Flood Warning has been cancelled for The Big Piney below Fort
Leonard Wood East Gate.
* At 4:00 PM Thursday The stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested at flood stage at 8.0 feet. The
river will fall to 5.0 feet by Friday Morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...The Pontoon Training Area at Ft. Wood Floods.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION STAGE STAGE DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun
Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wo 8 7.6 Thu 04 PM 5.0 3.3 3.0
&&
LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 1, 6:18 AM CDT, 3 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 6:18 AM CDT, 3 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015
...12Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.
This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.
That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.
Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.
That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
For early this morning, will need to watch convection north of the
JLN terminal, but for now think it will remain just northeast of
the airport. Have also kept SGF and JLN dry for this morning. We
should see a break from the thunderstorm activity later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty today.
Later this evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected, though timing and exact coverage is uncertain enough to
just continue to VCTS mention for now. Strong winds and heavy rain
is likely if/when convection affects the terminals. The forecast
should be able to be fine tuned later today.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.
KS...NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...BoxellHazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 6:36 AM CDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021145- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... LIMITED TORNADO RISK. ELEVATED HAIL RISK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. ELEVATED FLOODING RISK. SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK. LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK. LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK. DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING STORMS AS WELL AS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY STORMS TRACKING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ALONG ANY REMAINING BOUNDARIES OR ALONG THAT FRONT WILL POSE A LIMITED RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN FORM INTO A CLUSTER ONCE AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING WHICH THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS. THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS. IN ADDITION TO HAZARDS POSED BY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS INCLUDES STOCKTON LAKE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING TO END THE WORK WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE) THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) BOXELL
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 1, 5:19 AM CDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0413 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE FAIR PLAY 37.58N 93.55W
07/01/2015 POLK MO BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORT OF TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 123 BETWEEN FAIR PLAY AND
ALDRICH.
&&
BOXELLLocal storm report, Jul 1, 6:37 AM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0410 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 W CROCKER 37.95N 92.36W
07/01/2015 PULASKI MO EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE BLOCKING HWY U WEST OF CROCKER.
&&
BOXELLLocal storm report, Jul 1, 8:33 AM CDT, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
833 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0338 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW PITTSBURG 37.86N 93.34W
07/01/2015 HICKORY MO 911 CALL CENTER
TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR
&&
RABERDINGLocal storm report, Jul 1, 8:39 AM CDT, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
839 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0436 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW MARSHFIELD 37.40N 92.96W
07/01/2015 WEBSTER MO EMERGENCY MNGR
REPORT OF A TREE DOWN NEAR GREER CREEK ROAD IN
MARSHFIELD. THE TREE WAS APPROXIMATELY 4 INCHES IN
DIAMETER.
&&
AFOSCATOLocal storm report, Jul 1, 8:50 AM CDT, 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
850 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0846 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW BENNETT SPRINGS 37.77N 92.88W
07/01/2015 DALLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS NEAR THE NRO CAMPGROUND.
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY CAUSED FLASH FLOODING IN
THE AREA.
&&
DCRAMERLocal storm report, Jul 1, 9:00 AM CDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0858 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 S HERMITAGE 37.91N 93.32W
07/01/2015 HICKORY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
VEHICLE SWEPT OFF OF A LOW WATER CROSSING DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
DCRAMERThe office that day
Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 1:50 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Benton | 40 min |
| Jul 1, 1:54 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Benton | 37 min |
| Jul 1, 2:16 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Benton | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 3:33 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Camden, Cedar, Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Polk and 1 more | 42 min |
| Jul 1, 3:54 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Camden, Cedar, Dade, Dallas, Greene, Laclede and 2 more | 51 min |
| Jul 1, 4:28 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dallas, Greene, Laclede, Webster, Wright | 47 min |
| Jul 1, 5:25 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | SGF | Camden, Dent, Laclede, Miller, Morgan, Phelps and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 6:48 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Benton, Camden, Hickory, St. Clair | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 7:24 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | SGF | Camden, Cedar, Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Polk and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 8:21 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Polk | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 8:36 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Texas, Wright | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 9:18 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | SGF | Phelps | 5 days |
| Jul 1, 9:53 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Dent, Shannon | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 10:43 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Howell, Oregon | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 12:59 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | SGF | Benton, Camden, Hickory, St. Clair | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 1:58 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | SGF | Dallas, Hickory, Laclede, Polk | 5 hr |
| Jul 1, 2:51 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | SGF | Webster, Wright | 4 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.