Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For early this morning, will need to watch convection north of the
JLN terminal, but for now think it will remain just northeast of
the airport. Have also kept SGF and JLN dry for this morning. We
should see a break from the thunderstorm activity later this
morning into the afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty today.

Later this evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected, though timing and exact coverage is uncertain enough to
just continue to VCTS mention for now. Strong winds and heavy rain
is likely if/when convection affects the terminals. The forecast
should be able to be fine tuned later today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
  MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
  TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
  STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
  HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM THIS
  AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG REMAINING OUTFLOW
  BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING STORMS AS WELL AS ALONG A FRONTAL
  BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

  STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL
  UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
  60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.
  ADDITIONALLY...ANY STORMS TRACKING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ALONG
  ANY REMAINING BOUNDARIES OR ALONG THAT FRONT WILL POSE A
  LIMITED RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN FORM INTO A CLUSTER ONCE
  AGAIN STARTING THIS EVENING WHICH THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST
  ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK
  FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS.
  THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
  INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS.

  IN ADDITION TO HAZARDS POSED BY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
  TONIGHT...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
  WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
  CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS INCLUDES
  STOCKTON LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S CAN BE
  EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
  NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. STRONG TO
  SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST A
  LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS
 THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
329 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WARSAW                  38.24N 93.38W
07/01/2015                   BENTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            BENTON COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED
            WITHIN THE COUNTY. HIGHWAY C NEAR LINCOLN IMPASSABLE.
            SOME RESIDENTAL AREAS ALSO FLOODING.

&&

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOWRY CITY              38.14N 93.73W
07/01/2015                   ST. CLAIR          MO   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN. REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE FAIR PLAY         37.58N 93.55W
07/01/2015                   POLK               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 123 BETWEEN FAIR PLAY AND
            ALDRICH.

&&

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W CROCKER             37.95N 92.36W
07/01/2015                   PULASKI            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOCKING HWY U WEST OF CROCKER.

&&

BOXELL