Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Springfield, MO

653 
WGUS73 KSGF 190914
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
414 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

MOC015-141-190923-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0090.000000T0000Z-150819T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORGAN MO-BENTON MO-
414 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN MORGAN AND NORTHERN BENTON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 AM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3851 9272 3830 9352
      3851 9351 3851 9330 3854 9329 3853 9307
      3869 9306

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
537 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 0159 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

Rather complex mesoscale set up over the region at this time.
Outflow boundary has become a focus for scattered showers and
storms that extend from Rolla southwestward to near Branson. While
the airmass in this area is unstable (MLCAPE nearing 2000 J/kg),
shear is lacking. As a result, storms have fired, but organization
is struggling. Multicells are expected for the next few hours
before this activity exits to the east. There is a risk for a few
severe storms with this activity, with hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts to 60mph the main risks.

In the meantime, an elongated area of rain and embedded storms
continues to move east out of western Missouri. This activity has
exhibited a slow weakening trend, but should stay together as it
encounters increasing instability. At this point, not expecting
severe weather with this activity, but it will continued to be
monitored for trends.

Heading into this evening and tonight, eyes will then focus on a
cold front approaching from the northwest. Should see enough
recovery across eastern Kansas to increase instability. Convection
that fires along the front will move southeast with time and into
western portions of the area this evening. There are questions as
to how unstable our atmosphere will become. This area has been
worked over so far today, and the window of opportunity for
heating and recovery is small, and getting smaller by the hour.
Trends will need to be monitored carefully. If enough instability
develops, there will be a risk of marginally severe hail/wind with
storms that enter from the west.

Overnight, the cold front will move through the region and a much
cooler airmass will enter from the northwest. The main shortwave
over the upper Midwest will be slow to eject northeast, and a few
additional lobes of vorticity will move through the area beginning
late tonight through Wednesday. As a result, additional showers
are expected across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0159 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

Cold front will continue to plow through the area Wednesday. A
strong mid level shortwave moving out of Kansas combined with a
moist mid/upper level parallel flow will promote a slug of post
frontal showers across most of the area through a majority of the
day into the evening. NW surface flow, clouds and precip will make
for a well below average August day with highs likely in the
middle 60s. Once precip and clouds clear out Wednesday night,
lows will tank into the lower 50s.

 Quiet weather is expected under zonal flow Thursday and Friday
with the highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s/lower
60s. Medium range models continue to show a disturbance in the
flow approaching the area early Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms look possible during this timeframe.

 A strong shortwave will traverse the northern plains on Sunday
pushing another cold front into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms also look possible during the day and evening
Sunday. Beyond Sunday, northwest flow returns and dry conditions
are expected through early next week. Temperatures look to remain
near or slightly below average with highs near 80 and lows near
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 0533 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

Convection over the eastern CWA should exit just as convection
ahead of the cold front in eastern Kansas begins to push into our
western CWA. Should start to see that occur near the onset of the
00z TAFS and for the JLN area into SGF an hour or two later. BBG
will be later in the evening. This system seems to have quite a
bit of post-frontal precipitation, so will be going with
showers/thunder through much of the TAF period. Much of the pre-
frontal conditions will be in VFR/MVFR unless you can get directly
under a stronger storm which could send it into IFR. However,
post-frontal conditions will deteriorate into IFR for much of the
day Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
816 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
816 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
  BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE LATE
  EVENING.

  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS...THESE STORMS
  WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
  AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO
  EAST WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
  WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
  WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
813 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEIR                    37.31N 94.77W
08/18/2015  E65 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND SPEED ESTIMATED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

RABERDING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
843 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRESTLINE               37.17N 94.70W
08/18/2015  E60 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST AT KOAM-TV STUDIOS

&&

RABERDING