Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Springfield, MO

016 
WGUS73 KSGF 032152 RRA
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOC067-153-032202-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-150703T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS MO-OZARK MO-
452 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
OZARK AND SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3693 9209 3673 9212 3674 9248 3681 9253
      3694 9243

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the region this
morning, with a few small clusters of elevated showers/thunderstorms
developing across the area.  These are in response to weak lift
centered around 925 MB, along with the larger scale influence of a
broad shortwave moving south through the upper Mississippi Valley.

That frontal boundary will more or less remain stationary over the
region during the day today, with scattered thunderstorms expected
over much of the area today.  Little or no severe weather is
expected with this convection, though occasional heavy rain may be a
concern, and certainly won't help the flood situation across the
Ozarks.  Along with the convection, abundant cloud cover will keep
temperatures on the cool side for early July, with highs only in the low
80s.

The aforementioned shortwave is expected to pass through the area
this evening, which should (temporarily) bring rain chances down as
shortwave ridging develops in its wake.  A few showers may linger
into the overnight hours over far southern Missouri, though this
will be the exception rather than rule.  The passage of the upper
wave will also push the low level front a bit further south,
allowing somewhat cooler and drier air to build into the area
overnight.  Lows tonight look to fall into the low to mid 60s, as
dewpoints drop into the low 60s.  With skies becoming at least
partly cloudy, we'll need to watch for fog potential late tonight
given recent rains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

The 4th of July is actually looking rather pleasant at this point,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and partly cloudy skies.  With
dewpoints remaining in the 60s, it should feel a bit more
comfortable outside compared to the last few weeks.

Thunderstorms will then increase again heading into Sunday, as a
warm front lifts back north toward the area.  Thunderstorms should be
scattered in nature Sunday and Sunday night, but by Monday,
convection should become rather widespread as a shortwave over the
Dakotas pushes a front south toward the area.  This front looks like
it may stall out in the vicinity of southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas Monday night into Tuesday, as the overall upper
level pattern becomes more zonal.  It's still too early to talk
specific rainfall amounts, but given already saturated soils, it
won't take much to result in renewed flooding, and this will need to
watched closely over the next few days.

Daily thunderstorm chances will then continue through the remainder
of the 7 day forecast.  Right now it appears that temperatures will
start to increase toward the end of the workweek, as upper level
ridging builds east across Texas.  This may result in temperatures
returning to or above average by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Another day of unsettled weather is expected across the region.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through much of the day,
shifting to the south of the area late this afternoon into this
evening. For the next few hours, expect patchy MVFR visibility and
ceilings in the IFR/MVFR range. A gradual improvement is expected
through the day, though MVFR visibility and ceilings will be
common with any rain showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
438 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON A PERIODIC BASIS
  THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD
  SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
  GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
  MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS REMAIN IMPASSIBLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  RESIDUAL FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS
  WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATE
  SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST
  THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
  TIMES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

  HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 95 DEGREES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL