Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Springfield, MO

263 
WGUS73 KSGF 032152
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOC225-229-032202-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150703T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBSTER MO-WRIGHT MO-
452 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT FOR WEBSTER AND
WESTERN WRIGHT COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3709 9306 3749 9307 3748 9258 3706 9235

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the region this
morning, with a few small clusters of elevated showers/thunderstorms
developing across the area.  These are in response to weak lift
centered around 925 MB, along with the larger scale influence of a
broad shortwave moving south through the upper Mississippi Valley.

That frontal boundary will more or less remain stationary over the
region during the day today, with scattered thunderstorms expected
over much of the area today.  Little or no severe weather is
expected with this convection, though occasional heavy rain may be a
concern, and certainly won't help the flood situation across the
Ozarks.  Along with the convection, abundant cloud cover will keep
temperatures on the cool side for early July, with highs only in the low
80s.

The aforementioned shortwave is expected to pass through the area
this evening, which should (temporarily) bring rain chances down as
shortwave ridging develops in its wake.  A few showers may linger
into the overnight hours over far southern Missouri, though this
will be the exception rather than rule.  The passage of the upper
wave will also push the low level front a bit further south,
allowing somewhat cooler and drier air to build into the area
overnight.  Lows tonight look to fall into the low to mid 60s, as
dewpoints drop into the low 60s.  With skies becoming at least
partly cloudy, we'll need to watch for fog potential late tonight
given recent rains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

The 4th of July is actually looking rather pleasant at this point,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and partly cloudy skies.  With
dewpoints remaining in the 60s, it should feel a bit more
comfortable outside compared to the last few weeks.

Thunderstorms will then increase again heading into Sunday, as a
warm front lifts back north toward the area.  Thunderstorms should be
scattered in nature Sunday and Sunday night, but by Monday,
convection should become rather widespread as a shortwave over the
Dakotas pushes a front south toward the area.  This front looks like
it may stall out in the vicinity of southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas Monday night into Tuesday, as the overall upper
level pattern becomes more zonal.  It's still too early to talk
specific rainfall amounts, but given already saturated soils, it
won't take much to result in renewed flooding, and this will need to
watched closely over the next few days.

Daily thunderstorm chances will then continue through the remainder
of the 7 day forecast.  Right now it appears that temperatures will
start to increase toward the end of the workweek, as upper level
ridging builds east across Texas.  This may result in temperatures
returning to or above average by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Scattered showers and storms will linger across the Ozarks through
this evening bringing the potential for some limited impacts to
aviators. Flight conditions overnight will be VFR with some areas
of MVFR visibilities beginning around sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Hatch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
107 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
  ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS
  WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...PERIODS
  OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
  HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY CAUSE SOME
  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

  RESIDUAL FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE
  TODAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
  MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS REMAIN IMPASSIBLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  RESIDUAL FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
  REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST
  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO AT
  LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
  POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING NEXT
  WEEK.

  HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 95 DEGREES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG