Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE
AREA WILL BE IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EACH ONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TD BILL WAS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ABOUT
READY TO CROSS INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE BOTH MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WHAT COULD BE VIEWED AS THE LEADING OLD FEEDER BAND INTO
BILL...AND OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AS
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES FROM NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...TO NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH HAS RECENTLY BEEN POSTED FOR ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 1100 PM EDT. STRONG SHEAR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WINDS AROUND THE REMNANTS OF BILL AND CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ARE HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND
AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PARTS OF THIS AREA HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS...AND ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR SO OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS UNDER TRAINING STORMS...TO FALL ACROSS THIS REGION FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
MODERATELY STRONG 850 MB NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER
60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO
ERODE THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER BY THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A RETURN OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST A BE THE TRIGGER FOR THIS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MIGHT STALL BEFORE PASSING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BY TUESDAY 850 TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND
+20 TO +24 ON TUESDAY...BUT THE HOT AIR MASS WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG
CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +12. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
ABOVE 70 AND MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL WITH LIMITED PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

PATTERN EVOLVES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM ZONAL AT 500 MB TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND TROF IN THE
EAST. ECMWF HAS SOME SHORT WAVES AND LIFT COMING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A DECENT COLD FRONT FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIR MASS AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF TD BILL WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO BANDS OF ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS IS ALSO EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THE
CONVECTION...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED. WIND
SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY VEER
SW WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE TD BILL REMNANTS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE VEER OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
W-NW BUT CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY. A WINTER-LIKE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE PATTERN YIELDING
PLENTY OF MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR ALSO EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY...FROM THE MID LEVELS AND DOWN. LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
AROUND 15Z/11AM SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...BUT
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ENTER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...ALONG
WITHPOCKETS OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE WEST...THANKS TO ADDITION
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES...OR ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A RESIDUAL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF STEADIER HEAVIER RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE HEAVIER RATES
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION OCCURS. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE VIRGINIA
HIGHLANDS AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY
IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES MAKING THOSE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING. THUS GIVEN THE
FORECAST RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN THAN SEEN OF LATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
     018>020-022>024.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1239 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-211645-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1239 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW OF THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

BY LATE SUNDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-211645-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
1239 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-211645-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1239 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SK

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