Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Blacksburg, VA

032 
WGUS61 KRNK 180241
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
941 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF FLOYD
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AT LEAST TWO INCHES IN AREAS NEAR THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NEAR FLOYD VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AMOUNTS AT OR SLIGHTLY
OVER THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL WITHIN A SIX
TO EIGHT HOUR WINDOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-181045-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0009.151118T2100Z-151119T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
941 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC... 
  ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES. IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... 
  CARROLL...FLOYD...GRAYSON AND PATRICK. 

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND 
  NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS. 

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SMALL RIVERS...ALSO 
  FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS MAY BE 
  OBSTRUCTING STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

201 
WGUS61 KRNK 180904
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
404 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF FLOYD VIRGINIA
INTO NORTH CAROLINA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AT LEAST TWO
INCHES IN AREAS NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM NEAR
FLOYD VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. AMOUNTS AT OR SLIGHTLY OVER THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL WITHIN A SIX TO EIGHT HOUR WINDOW FROM
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-181715-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0009.151118T2100Z-151119T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
404 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC... 
  ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES. IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... 
  CARROLL...FLOYD...GRAYSON AND PATRICK. 

* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND 
  NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS. 

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SMALL RIVERS IS POSSIBLE...
  AS WELL AS FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER
  DEBRIS MAY BE OBSTRUCTING STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

270 
WGUS61 KRNK 181522
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1022 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF FLOYD VIRGINIA
INTO NORTH CAROLINA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AT LEAST TWO
INCHES IN AREAS NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM NEAR
FLOYD VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. AMOUNTS AT OR SLIGHTLY OVER THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL WITHIN A SIX TO EIGHT HOUR WINDOW FROM
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-182330-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0009.151118T2100Z-151119T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
1022 AM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC... 
  ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES. IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... 
  CARROLL...FLOYD...GRAYSON AND PATRICK. 

* FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND 
  NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS. 

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SMALL RIVERS IS POSSIBLE... 
  AS WELL AS FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER 
  DEBRIS MAY BE OBSTRUCTING STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT RNK.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR AT PHONE
NUMBER...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BLACKSBURG.
REPORTS ARE ALSO WELCOME ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWITTER FEED
@NWSBLACKSBURG.

&&

$$

999 
WGUS61 KRNK 181959
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF FLOYD VIRGINIA
INTO NORTH CAROLINA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AT LEAST TWO
INCHES IN AREAS NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM NEAR
FLOYD VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. AMOUNTS AT OR SLIGHTLY OVER THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL WITHIN A FOUR TO EIGHT HOUR WINDOW FROM
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-190400-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0009.151118T2100Z-151119T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
259 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC... 
  ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES. IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... 
  CARROLL...FLOYD...GRAYSON AND PATRICK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND 
  NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
  AMOUNTS. 

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SMALL RIVERS IS POSSIBLE... 
  AS WELL AS FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER 
  DEBRIS MAY BE OBSTRUCTING STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT RNK.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR AT PHONE
NUMBER...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BLACKSBURG.
REPORTS ARE ALSO WELCOME ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWITTER FEED
@NWSBLACKSBURG.

&&

$$

836 
WGUS61 KRNK 190111
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
811 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF FLOYD VIRGINIA
INTO NORTH CAROLINA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL TWO TO THREE INCHES
IN AREAS NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FROM NEAR FLOYD
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. AMOUNTS AT OR SLIGHTLY OVER THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL WITHIN A FOUR TO EIGHT HOUR WINDOW FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-190915-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151119T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
811 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC... 
  ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES. IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... 
  CARROLL...FLOYD...GRAYSON AND PATRICK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
  NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
  OF UP TO FOUR INCHES.

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SMALL RIVERS IS POSSIBLE... 
  AS WELL AS FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER 
  DEBRIS MAY BE OBSTRUCTING STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT RNK.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR AT PHONE
NUMBER...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BLACKSBURG.
REPORTS ARE ALSO WELCOME ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWITTER FEED
@NWSBLACKSBURG.

&&

$$

749 
WGUS61 KRNK 190845
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
345 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS RUNOFF
CONTRIBUTES TO RAPID RIVER RISES...

.WHILE RADAR INDICATES THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED THE WATCH AREA...
RAIN GAUGES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INDICATE THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIVER GAUGES ALSO INDICATE
SHARP RISES ON THE LOCAL CREEKS AND STREAMS...WITH SOME FLOWING
OUT OF THEIR BANKS. AS SUCH...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-191500-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151119T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
345 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC... 
  ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES. IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... 
  CARROLL...FLOYD...GRAYSON AND PATRICK. 

* UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.

* WHILE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...FLOODING OF
  CREEKS...STREAMS...AND SMALL RIVERS REMAINS POSSIBLE...AS WELL
  AS FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS MAY BE
  OBSTRUCTING STORM DRAINS AND CULVERTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT RNK.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR AT PHONE
NUMBER...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BLACKSBURG.
REPORTS ARE ALSO WELCOME ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWITTER FEED
@NWSBLACKSBURG.

&&

$$

912 
WGUS61 KRNK 191342
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
842 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015



NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-191445-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151119T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
842 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN HAS ENDED AND
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED. SOME FLOODING
OF SMALLER RIVERS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WERE
IN FLOOD OR JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT ARE FALLING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPDATE TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN IN THE WEST DUE TO EVAP
COOLING/SPRINKLES. HAVE REPORTS OF SPRINKLES AS FAR EAST AS
BCB...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE SO KEEPING POPS BELOW
15 PERCENT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION...

SE WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA INTO
SRN WV. THIS IS CREATING A DRY POCKET WHERE DEWPOINTS HAD DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS AT BLF/LNP/JFZ. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS AREA DRIER ON
DEWPOINTS FOR A FEW HOURS.

RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS SE WV/FAR SW VA BUT MAINLY
THIS IS THE AC/AS MOVING IN. HOWEVER...COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SE WV MTNS INTO THE ALLEGHANYS FOR A
SPRINKLE TO BE FELT...SO ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE EAST OF A LYH/SOUTH BOSTON LINE WILL GO AWAY
SOON AS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CREATE BKN/OVC CONDITIONS.

TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILDER...BUT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN SHOULD SEE THE
UPWARD RISE SLOW DOWN. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS OUT EAST WARMER BY A
COUPLE DEGREES...SO MAX T THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE NEAR BOONE/WEST JEFFERSON...TO
LOWER TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COULD REACH CLOSE TO 70 EAST
OF DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG.

AS FAR AS THE WIND HEADLINES...NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
500 MB BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RIDGING AND
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT THE 850 MB
JET WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AND BY
12Z/7AM WEDNESDAY THE JET WILL REACH ABOUT 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

AIR MASS SLOWLY SATURATES TODAY WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF BETTER UPSLOPE AND FORCING ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF LEXINGTON OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH DECENT MIXING...ESPECIALLY ON
THE RIDGES AND WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW
SUPPORTING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG FROM THE
FOOTHILLS WESTWARD. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND THEREFORE EXPECT DAMP CONDITIONS...BUT WITH LOW RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE DURING THE
EVENING HOWEVER AS WIND SPEEDS ALOFT INCREASE...ALLOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS TIGHTENED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REACH 55 TO
60 MPH...AND BELIEVE SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES.
AS SUCH...A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WEST FOR
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY EVENING...WINDS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THAT...
COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL MAKE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE...WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT MINOR FLOODING ISSUES...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH
DRAINS CLOGGED WITH FALLEN LEAVES...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE FEW
AND FAR IN BETWEEN. BELIEVE WE WILL ALSO SEE HEALTHY RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
LINGERING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LUNCHTIME THURSDAY...AND ONLY
RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING INTO EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...AS WELL AS RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST MONDAY...

RATHER QUIET WX PATTERN SHAPING UP THIS PERIOD...WITH 5H TROUGH AXIS
SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH HEADS EAST OF US SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH A FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING US DRY/COOL WX BUT
COULD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY FROM TIME TO
TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MOVES EAST OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY EXPECT SOME MODERATING TEMPS...THOUGH WILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY...

CIGS WILL STAY VFR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH BKN/OVC AC/AS DECK. SOME BREAKS IN THIS MID DECK SHOULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON OVER DANVILLE...WITH CIRRUS ABOVE.

THE SE FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE TOWARD EVENING...BUT EVEN
BEFORE THAT BLF SHOULD STAY 10-12KT GUSTS 20KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

BY TONIGHT THE LOW LVL JET STARTS TO INCREASE TO
40-50KTS...BRINGING A STRONG GUSTY WIND TO BLF SO EXPECT AT TIMES
THAT BLF COULD GUST TO 35-40KTS...THOUGH THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
WEST OF KBLF. FURTHER EAST...THE SE WIND WILL AID IN DEVELOPING
LOWER CIGS AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT 04-09Z ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY INTO BLF/LWB. LOOKING AT PATCHY DZ/BR AT ROA/BCB AROUND
09-11Z. BY THIS POINT CIGS WILL BE DIPPING BELOW 1KFT. CIGS SHOULD
ALSO FLIRT WITH SUB 1KFT A LYH AS WELL BETWEEN 06-12Z.

THE 12Z NAM INDICATES LLWS POSSIBILITY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT...EXCEPT LWB. NAM ALSO
SHOWING LLWS AT BLF BUT WITH GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN...LEFT IT OUT
OF THE TAF.

BY LATE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE CIGS AROUND
1-3KFT...WITH BEST DZ/LIGHT RAIN THREAT SOUTH OF A BCB/ROA LINE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY STRONG OVER THE
MTNS FROM WEST OF TNB-BLF-LWB...WITH LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING OUT BY
LATE EVENING. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WORKING IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN BLF/LWB AND GRADUALLY REACHING
DAN...LYH AFTER 06Z THU. THIS WILL KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS POOR.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM SE TO SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXITS TO THE EAST.
EXPECT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY HEAD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. WHILE DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...SOMEWHAT GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OTHERWISE
VFR. WINDS MAY BE STRONG BEHIND THIS FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ042-043-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-508-182030-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
323 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-182030-
ASHE-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-
323 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ016-017-032-182030-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WILKES-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-
323 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ010>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ044-507-182030-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
CHARLOTTE-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
323 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ033-043-044-058-182030-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-
323 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS THAT FALL OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE MAY SEND STREAMS AND RIVERS UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE PIGG AND DAN RIVER BASINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD CAUSE SOME POOR
DRAINAGE OR URBAN FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.