Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
417 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE ACROSS OH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LAGGING BEHIND. NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH THE FIRST AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE
SLATED FOR AROUND 18Z ENTERING SE OH AND MAKING INROADS INTO C WV
BY 22Z AND SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH OVERALL SHEAR WHICH REMAINS LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG
WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER TROF AXIS. SO...EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SVR
TO ROLL THRU SE OH LATER THIS AFTN...WEAKENING AFTER 00Z FOR E WV.
A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL...PWATS ARE MEAGER BUT THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TRAINING ACROSS SE OH FOR SOME ISOLATED ISSUES IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

AFTER CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...WILL BE WATCHING FOR
THE FRONT TO SAG IN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH JUST ENOUGH BL PUFF
AN DRY AIR ADVECTING IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN ADDITION TO SOME FG. THIS STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT MID MORNING INTO CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES.
HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW SAVE FOR S ZONES AS MUCH
OF THE REGION IS DRY AIR CAPPED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SLOWLY SOUTH THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE JUICY...WITH MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND PWATS AROUND 1.9
INCHES. H500 CHARTS SHOW A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES PASSING BY.
EXPECT THESE SHORT WAVES TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST SUPPRESSING PCPN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
GENERALLY...LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST.

MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR WITH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THRU THE
AREA 00Z...CREATING BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. ROLLED WITH
SOME 1 HR TEMPO IFR FOR W TERMINALS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HI RES MODELS ON SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING. ANY LOCATION THAT
GETS HIT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION COULD SEE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW END MVFR STRATUS...OR MVFR/IFR FOG IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE CLEARING.

THE LAGGING SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MIX OUT TOMORROW. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AS
WELL...INTO AN ABUNDANT LOW END VFR CU FIELD...PREDOMINATELY
ACROSS S TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR
STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ006>008-
     014>016.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101-103.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE CHARLESTON         38.38N  81.60W
06/30/2015  M53 MPH          KANAWHA            WV   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501472

MAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
622 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

KYZ105-302300-
LAWRENCE-
622 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAWRENCE COUNTY...

AT 621 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BLAINE...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.  DUE TO THE WET GROUND...THESE WIND GUSTS CAN BRING A FEW WEAK TREES
DOWN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISA...BLAINE...YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...CHARLEY...ULYSSES...
MARTHA...GALLUP...CLIFFORD...FALLSBURG AND HOUCKVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3805 8298 3805 8296 3811 8289 3814 8291
      3823 8264 3818 8261 3817 8264 3814 8264
      3807 8255 3800 8252 3800 8249 3798 8246
      3797 8248 3796 8247 3795 8249 3796 8254
      3794 8258 3794 8278 3800 8294 3797 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 271DEG 31KT 3804 8283

22

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