Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
417 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING
BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE ACROSS OH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER TROF AND REMNANT MCV. A POTENT S/W TROF WILL ROTATE THRU
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LAGGING BEHIND. NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH THE FIRST AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE
SLATED FOR AROUND 18Z ENTERING SE OH AND MAKING INROADS INTO C WV
BY 22Z AND SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH OVERALL SHEAR WHICH REMAINS LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL ENOUGH BL HEATING TO HELP BOOST THINGS ALONG
WITH A HINT OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER TROF AXIS. SO...EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SVR
TO ROLL THRU SE OH LATER THIS AFTN...WEAKENING AFTER 00Z FOR E WV.
A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
CONCERNING FLOODING POTENTIAL...PWATS ARE MEAGER BUT THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TRAINING ACROSS SE OH FOR SOME ISOLATED ISSUES IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

AFTER CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...WILL BE WATCHING FOR
THE FRONT TO SAG IN. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA...ALL THE WHILE...THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS WITH
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH JUST ENOUGH BL PUFF
AN DRY AIR ADVECTING IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW
STRATUS TO CONTEND WITH IN ADDITION TO SOME FG. THIS STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT MID MORNING INTO CU FIELD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES.
HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY TOMORROW SAVE FOR S ZONES AS MUCH
OF THE REGION IS DRY AIR CAPPED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SLOWLY SOUTH THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE JUICY...WITH MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND PWATS AROUND 1.9
INCHES. H500 CHARTS SHOW A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES PASSING BY.
EXPECT THESE SHORT WAVES TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST SUPPRESSING PCPN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
GENERALLY...LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST.

MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR WITH LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THRU THE
AREA 00Z...CREATING BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. ROLLED WITH
SOME 1 HR TEMPO IFR FOR W TERMINALS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HI RES MODELS ON SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIMING. ANY LOCATION THAT
GETS HIT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION COULD SEE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW END MVFR STRATUS...OR MVFR/IFR FOG IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE CLEARING.

THE LAGGING SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MIX OUT TOMORROW. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AS
WELL...INTO AN ABUNDANT LOW END VFR CU FIELD...PREDOMINATELY
ACROSS S TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR
STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ006>008-
     014>016.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ083-086-
     087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101-103.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-040-012015-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
WIRT-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-TAYLOR-BARBOUR-
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101-OHZ083-086-087-WVZ007-008-012015-
GREENUP-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-MASON-JACKSON WV-
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ103-WVZ006-014>016-012015-
BOYD-CABELL-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ102-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-018-024>030-033>039-046-047-012015-
CARTER-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-LINCOLN-CALHOUN-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             THE PLAINS              39.37N  82.13W
06/30/2015  E0.88 INCH       ATHENS             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND BUT NO WIND
            DAMAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501469

MAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

KYZ101-103-OHZ075-076-083-085>087-WVZ006>010-032-302100-
BOYD-GREENUP-WASHINGTON-LAWRENCE-GALLIA-MEIGS-JACKSON-ATHENS-MASON-
CABELL-PLEASANTS-TAYLOR-JACKSON-WOOD-
422 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BOYD...
CENTRAL GREENUP...MEIGS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...GALLIA...WASHINGTON...
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN ATHENS...WOOD...PLEASANTS...NORTHWESTERN
MASON...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN
CABELL COUNTIES...

AT 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEVERLY OHIO...WEST OF MARIETTA AND
PARKERSBURG...ON SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO. THE LINE WAS NEAR ALBANY
IN ATHENS COUNTY AND NEAR JACKSON. THE LINE EXTENDED INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY NEAR SOUTH SHORE.

THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS LINE WILL AFFECT OHIO RIVER COMMUNITIES BETWEEN 4:30 AND
6 O'CLOCK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSTED. THESE STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3876 8290 3858 8284 3860 8274 3885 8265
      3895 8280 3908 8243 3903 8232 3914 8231
      3956 8161 3945 8102 3936 8101 3944 7992
      3931 8020 3938 8023 3931 8122 3896 8165
      3888 8191 3841 8231 3840 8260 3856 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 269DEG 69KT 3940 8165 3905 8239 3879 8315

22

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WVZ011-019-020-302200-
RITCHIE-TYLER-DODDRIDGE-
536 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RITCHIE...DODDRIDGE
AND EASTERN TYLER COUNTIES...

AT 532 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS EAST OF MIDDLEBOURNE...NEAR LIMA
AND SHIRLEY IN EASTERN TYLER COUNTY. OTHER STORMS WERE NEAR PULLMAN
AND AUBURN OF EASTERN RITCHIE COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHAST AT 30 MPH
TOWARD DODDRDIGE COUNTY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISVILLE...PENNSBORO...WEST UNION...NORTH
BEND STATE PARK...ELLENBORO...PULLMAN...GROVE...SMITHBURG...
HIGHLAND...LIMA...NEW MILTON...SEDALIA...WICK...GREENWOOD...
BLANDVILLE...CANTON...CENTER POINT AND ALMA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3947 8071 3948 8068 3946 8067 3947 8064
      3944 8060 3945 8058 3943 8058 3944 8056
      3942 8054 3933 8056 3927 8058 3912 8080
      3916 8086 3921 8112 3934 8104 3935 8101
      3939 8101 3948 8096 3956 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 245DEG 34KT 3945 8086

22