Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND MEANDER BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 NOW IN EFFECT.

CONVECTION IS A TAD SLOW TO GET GOING...BUT GETTING CLOSER TO THE
UPPER 80S CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE. LOOKING AT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 8C/KM RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING AROUND 21Z. BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 35KTS...LENDING TO SOME CELL
ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AS IT NOW APPROACHES CMH.

MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLEARING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
THIS TYPICALLY NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SPEED
BUMP TO THE EAST. SO THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...EXPECTING TO BE ABLE TO LOSE THE CONVECTION IN A TIMELY
MANNER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND COAL FIELDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECTING A DRIER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE
850-650MB RANGE. KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THIS FRONT ACTIVE AS
IT SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS BY FRIDAY. SO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH
THE MOST SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE NORTH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT THANKS TO A CONTINUED ONSLAUGHT OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH SOME
COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EVEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
HAVE ANOTHER FRONT COMING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER ONE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE POPS
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH
MODERATE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY.

LINE OF CONVECTION GETTING ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. CANNOT
ONLY TRACK THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS FOR TIMING TO THE
TERMINALS...BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
COMING HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CMH/CVG LINE...AND IS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF CONVECTION.

STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS...AND COVERED
THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS OF MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS.

TIMING IS THE KEY ISSUE AGAIN...WAITING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO GET
GOING AND ORGANIZED. TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MOVING INTO TERMINALS AND VICINITY
ARE DEEMED SEVERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS
LIKELY.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-241745-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-241745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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